32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Doesn’t inspire much confidence.
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**** Chargers 2024 Thread - Because No One Demanded It **** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Gr00vus
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
I don't know what to tell you. IMO this is the best draft the Chargers have had for at least the past 12 years.
I'm not sure if you are coming at his from a fantasy perspective or NFL perspective. I'm talking NFL perspective. IMO they have aced the offseason on that.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Yes, I am looking at the team thru a fantasy lens, but the lack of threats may make for a rough season. Maybe the staff can turn QJo around. 
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I think the idea is that an improved offensive line will make life easier for Herbert and the RBs. This team wasn't going to be converted into a challenger for the championship in one offseason. I think the goal for this season is just to return to respectability. They can do that even though they don't have proven studs at the offensive skill positions yet.
Also, I think they're still shopping the remaining WR free agent market. Granted, somewhat slim pickings.
Also, I think they're still shopping the remaining WR free agent market. Granted, somewhat slim pickings.
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Tau837
Footballguy
I think Hortiz and Harbaugh expect to make the playoffs this season, and I think they will if they don't have any major injuries to key players.
They might bring someone in, but I am skeptical. At this point, I expect Johnston, Palmer, Davis, McConkey, and Rice to make the final roster (again, barring injuries). I'm not sure if they will carry a 6th WR on the final roster... if so, Johnson would be that guy... he played for Harbaugh on Michigan's national championship team, which might give him a solid chance to make it.
Tau837
Footballguy
My post-draft prediction of the final 53 man roster (starters in bold):
I only bolded 10 defensive starters, but I'm not sure of the final starter, since I'm not sure if their typical base defense will be a 3-4-4, 4-2-5, or something else. If 3-4-4, they could start Tuli with Bosa at DE or start a 3rd IDL player. If 4-2-5, that means an extra DB, but I'm not sure who it would be.
IMO these are open questions:
- Offense (25)
- QB (2) - Herbert, Stick
- RB (4) - Edwards, Dobbins, Vidal (R), Spiller
- FB (1) - Mason
- TE (3) - Dissly, Hurst, Parham
- WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Rice (R), Davis, Johnson (R)
- OL (9) - LT Slater, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Pipkins, RT Alt (R), OL Salyer, IOL McFadden, IOL Jaimes, G Barnhart (R)
- Defense (25)
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Tuli, Rumph
- IDL (6) - Ford, Eboigbe (R), Fox, Ogbonnia, Matlock, Hinton
- LB (5) - Colson (R), Perryman, Henley, Niemann, Dye
- CB (6) - Samuel, Fulton, Taylor, Leonard, Hart (R), Still (R)
- S (4) - James, Gilman, Woods, Harper (R)
- Special Teams (3)
- PK (1) - Dicker
- P (1) - Scott
- LS (1) - Harris
I only bolded 10 defensive starters, but I'm not sure of the final starter, since I'm not sure if their typical base defense will be a 3-4-4, 4-2-5, or something else. If 3-4-4, they could start Tuli with Bosa at DE or start a 3rd IDL player. If 4-2-5, that means an extra DB, but I'm not sure who it would be.
IMO these are open questions:
- 6 WRs or 4 TEs? If 4 TEs, WR Johnson presumably goes to practice squad. More importantly, if 4 TEs, who is the 4th? Smartt does not strike me as a fit for the Harbaugh/Roman TE profile.
- Who gets the 9th OL spot? I'm projecting Barnhart, but it will obviously be a competition. I think the Chargers not drafting a center probably saved Jaimes' roster spot.
- Can any player beat out Rumph for the last edge spot? Maybe Morris-Brash?
- Can any player beat out Ogbonnia, Matlock, and/or Hinton for a roster spot? Maybe Clark and/or Okoye?
- Do the Chargers roll with Woods as their 3rd safety? I expect them to sign a veteran safety for that role, which is important in Minter's defense in general, even moreso if they intend to have James take snaps at slot corner, as has been rumored.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Reading your run down actually makes me feel worse about this draft. Seems like a lot of reaches in the mid rounds.
Tau837
Footballguy
Really? Here is my quick take:
- 1.5 (5) - OT Alt - stud, period
- 2.2 (34) - WR McConkey - excellent match with Herbert, strong long term WR2, good pick
- 3.5 (69) - LB Colson - risk free 3rd round pick who will key Minter's defense and likely wear the green dot... probably the best Chargers 3rd round pick since 2013 (Allen)
- That is 3 day 1 starters in 3 picks.
- 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - at minimum strong rotation player, could start because he is such a strong run defender; the Lightning Round podcast described him as very similar to Kris Jenkins (Michigan, pick 49)
- 5.2 (137) - CB Still - this is the only pick that really seemed like a reach to me; the LR podcast described him as very similar to Mike Sainristil (Michigan, pick 50)
- 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - definitely not a reach, right on point with the average rankings I posted
- 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal - I suppose this is arguably a reach, but it's a 6th round pick and at a position of need... does it really matter?
- 7.5 (225) - WR Rice - he was drafted ~100 picks later than the average rankings I posted, seems like a steal... and at a position of need
- 7.33 (253) - WR Johnson - a Michigan man for Harbaugh at a position of need... may not make the team, but how much does it matter for a player drafted as the 5th from the last pick in the draft?
Gr00vus
Footballguy
In your analysis, and maybe I read it wrong, it seemed like 4.5 through 6.5 were all selected significantly above where the consensus had them in terms of their draft order ranges. That's what gave me pause. Also, I'm not convinced they needed to move up to take McConkey, that seemed a little panicky to me - ultimately it only cost them a move down of 27 spots in the swap, but I have to wonder if they would have gone a different direction than Still if they were 27 picks higher up for that selection.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
And for those (like me) who need(ed) a refresher on the 2004 draft:
1. Eli - Nothing-special QB (especially for the 1st overall pick) who was traded for Philip Rivers and the picks that became Nate Kaeding and Shawne Merriman.
2. Igor Olshansky - Seven-year starter on the D-line (five with the Chargers)
3. Nate Kaeding - Seven-year standout K, one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls; still in the top 20 for both FG and PAT %
3. Nick Hardwick - Underrated nine-year starter at C, one Pro Bowl (but deserved MANY more)
4. Shaun Phillips - Dependable seven-year starter at OLB, one Pro Bowl, 70 sacks for the Chargers
5. Dave Ball - only with Chargers for a short time due to injuries, solid backup at DE for other teams (esp. TEN)
5. Michael Turner - Spent four years sharing time with Darren Sproles behind Tomlinson before becoming a workhorse with ATL (one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls)
6. Ryan Krause - TE
7. Ryon Bingham - DT
7. Shane Olivea - Four solid years as a starting OT before hanging it up
7. Carlos Joseph - T, never made a roster
That's 2 All-Pro seasons and 10 Pro Bowl seasons (not counting Rivers [2,8] and Merriman[1,3]). The Chargers never again drafted more than one guy who made All-Pro or more than two Pro Bowlers from the same draft.
1. Eli - Nothing-special QB (especially for the 1st overall pick) who was traded for Philip Rivers and the picks that became Nate Kaeding and Shawne Merriman.
2. Igor Olshansky - Seven-year starter on the D-line (five with the Chargers)
3. Nate Kaeding - Seven-year standout K, one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls; still in the top 20 for both FG and PAT %
3. Nick Hardwick - Underrated nine-year starter at C, one Pro Bowl (but deserved MANY more)
4. Shaun Phillips - Dependable seven-year starter at OLB, one Pro Bowl, 70 sacks for the Chargers
5. Dave Ball - only with Chargers for a short time due to injuries, solid backup at DE for other teams (esp. TEN)
5. Michael Turner - Spent four years sharing time with Darren Sproles behind Tomlinson before becoming a workhorse with ATL (one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls)
6. Ryan Krause - TE
7. Ryon Bingham - DT
7. Shane Olivea - Four solid years as a starting OT before hanging it up
7. Carlos Joseph - T, never made a roster
That's 2 All-Pro seasons and 10 Pro Bowl seasons (not counting Rivers [2,8] and Merriman[1,3]). The Chargers never again drafted more than one guy who made All-Pro or more than two Pro Bowlers from the same draft.
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Tau837
Footballguy
IMO as you get deeper in the draft, position ranking matters more than overall ranking.
- 4.5 (105) - DL Eboigbe - counting him as IDL and not Edge:
- Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his overall ranking average was 165.3, with a range from 118 to 249. He was drafted at 105.
- Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his position ranking average was 15.1, with a range from 9 to 25. He was drafted at 11.
- His position ranking doesn't look like as much of a reach as his overall ranking.
- His rankings very likely suffered due to his medical history (neck injury in 2022), which suggests that there would be more variance in his position on different team draft boards, i.e., some teams were good with it and some weren't, meaning they would rank him very differently. The Chargers clearly were comfortable with his history.
- In addition, it is quite possible that the Chargers value run defense on their board more than many teams do. He is one of the best run defense DL players in the draft.
- He also offers rare versatility, basically splitting his 2023 snaps roughly evenly between Edge and IDL, including snaps all over the line. That can offer more value to a team like the Chargers, which has a fairly weak IDL group.
- Altogether, it seems like a fine selection to me.
- 5.2 (137) - CB Still - definitely seems like a reach... I'm curious to hear more over time as to why the team prioritized him at this pick, which is obvious to see since they took CB Hart 3 picks later.
- 5.5 (140) - CB Hart - was drafted almost exactly at both his average overall draft ranking position and his average overall CB draft ranking position... this does not indicate a reach.
- 6.5 (181) - RB Vidal
- Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his overall ranking average was 231.4, with a range from 162 to 384. He was drafted at 181.
- Consensus among the 10 ranking sources I used was that his position ranking average was 18.6, with a range from 12 to 26. He was drafted at 17.
- This really doesn't seem like a reach to me, given it is the 6th round. And even moreso given the Chargers got WRs Rice and Johnson in the 7th round. They needed a RB, so it was reasonable to take the guy they wanted at 6.5, regardless of consensus rankings.
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
SmashMouth Football
Alt joins Slater to make bookend Tackles for Herbert to set up and throw the ball, Wide Receivers will flow on and off this team over coming seasons
McConkey is not totally polished but he has excellent hands and the ability to go from stop to go quicker than most
DC-Jesse Minter who came over with Harbaugh from Michigan, 3rd round Junior Colson-LB from Michigan, BINGO!
105-137-140, all defensive picks, DT and 2 DBs, we can praise or pick them apart but I think Harbaugh is overturning the roster quickly. Bama-MD-Notre Dame, not exactly small programs
Throws in some cheap skill guys late in the 6th and 7th
Overall i would rate the Chargers Draft somewhere in the B+/A- range, many sites did likewise.
I think I would have preferred one of the IOL or Dejean at 34 or wherever the Chargers were set to pick in the 2nd but that's just me.
Overall it felt like a pretty solid draft for Harbaugh, nothing out of this world but you also didn't go backwards.
Alt joins Slater to make bookend Tackles for Herbert to set up and throw the ball, Wide Receivers will flow on and off this team over coming seasons
McConkey is not totally polished but he has excellent hands and the ability to go from stop to go quicker than most
DC-Jesse Minter who came over with Harbaugh from Michigan, 3rd round Junior Colson-LB from Michigan, BINGO!
105-137-140, all defensive picks, DT and 2 DBs, we can praise or pick them apart but I think Harbaugh is overturning the roster quickly. Bama-MD-Notre Dame, not exactly small programs
Throws in some cheap skill guys late in the 6th and 7th
Overall i would rate the Chargers Draft somewhere in the B+/A- range, many sites did likewise.
I think I would have preferred one of the IOL or Dejean at 34 or wherever the Chargers were set to pick in the 2nd but that's just me.
Overall it felt like a pretty solid draft for Harbaugh, nothing out of this world but you also didn't go backwards.
Tau837
Footballguy
I listened to a Guilty As Charged podcast today, and they asserted that the Chargers had 3rd round grades on both DL Eboigbe and CB Hart. They said both fell in the draft relative to the Chargers grade based on their medicals and claimed that Hortiz, et al. are more willing to draft the best players with potentially non-ideal medicals than Telesco was.
I can't confirm any of that, but it's interesting and plausible. The only thing that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is taking Still at 5.2 and Hart at 5.5. Maybe they felt that the teams at 5.3 and 5.4 were absolutely not taking a CB, so it didn't matter, but it's odd that they took the risk of losing Hart unless they felt they needed to take Still first for whatever reason.
I can't confirm any of that, but it's interesting and plausible. The only thing that doesn't make a lot of sense to me is taking Still at 5.2 and Hart at 5.5. Maybe they felt that the teams at 5.3 and 5.4 were absolutely not taking a CB, so it didn't matter, but it's odd that they took the risk of losing Hart unless they felt they needed to take Still first for whatever reason.
Tau837
Footballguy
Egboigbe had neck/spinal issues, which is presumably different than McConkey's injuries. I'm not sure about Hart's injury details.
Tau837
Footballguy
I watched another Guilty As Charged podcast on YouTube. The discussion is about the different approach Hortiz took to the draft in comparison to Telesco. It is obviously a small sample size of just one draft for Hortiz, but the differences are notable and very positive for the Chargers.
3rd Round
The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.
In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.
I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.
Trading Up
They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).
They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.
Relative Athletic Score
The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.
3rd Round
The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
- 2013 - WR Keenan Allen
- 2014 - OL Chris Watt
- 2015 - CB Craig Mager
- 2016 - C Max Tuerk
- 2017 - IOL Dan Feeney
- 2018 - IDL Justin Jones
- 2019 - OT Trey Pipkins
- 2020 - Traded to move up to draft LB Kenneth Murray
- 2021 - WR Josh Palmer
- 2021 - TE Tre McKitty
- 2022 - S J.T. Woods
- 2023 - LB Henley
The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.
In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.
I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.
Trading Up
They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).
They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.
Relative Athletic Score
The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Can you say what his "score" is from this year with the Raiders? It seems Raider Fans are on board with the picks he made this year. Wonder why the change?I watched another Guilty As Charged podcast on YouTube. The discussion is about the different approach Hortiz took to the draft in comparison to Telesco. It is obviously a small sample size of just one draft for Hortiz, but the differences are notable and very positive for the Chargers.
3rd Round
The most important difference they noted is the 3rd round. I have noted many times in the past that Telesco had a tendency to use 3rd round picks on reaches who mostly didn't pan out. Here were Telesco's 3rd round picks with the Chargers:
The jury is out on Henley. Allen was great, and Palmer is solid. Pipkins has been a 2 year starter at RT, but he also just got drafted over in Hortiz's first draft, so it doesn't seem like he is good enough for what Harbaugh wants at OT. The other 7 players on that list were collectively awful.
- 2013 - WR Keenan Allen
- 2014 - OL Chris Watt
- 2015 - CB Craig Mager
- 2016 - C Max Tuerk
- 2017 - IOL Dan Feeney
- 2018 - IDL Justin Jones
- 2019 - OT Trey Pipkins
- 2020 - Traded to move up to draft LB Kenneth Murray
- 2021 - WR Josh Palmer
- 2021 - TE Tre McKitty
- 2022 - S J.T. Woods
- 2023 - LB Henley
The GAC guys highlighted that Telesco's 3rd round picks for the Chargers were drafted an average of 96.5 spots earlier than their consensus draft ranking since 2016. He repeated this tendency in this year's draft with the Raiders, taking Delmar Glaze at pick 77 when his consensus ranking was 152.
In contrast, Hortiz took Colson in the 3rd round, 5 spots later than his consensus ranking.
I realize that consensus rankings are media creations, and each team has its own board with many different rankings. But I have a lot of respect for many draft analysts who seem to do a great job with their grades and analysis. It seems reasonable to use those rankings as a proxy for comparisons.
Trading Up
They pointed out that Telesco traded up 4 times, each time giving up an extra pick in the draft, whereas Hortiz traded up by swapping picks, meaning he did not lose a draft pick (i.e., he was still able to draft 9 players).
They also pointed out that each time Telesco traded up, it was for a non-premium position (LB Teo, LB Attaochu, RB Gordon, LB Murray). In contrast, Hortiz traded up for a premium position this year: WR McConkey.
Relative Athletic Score
The average RAS for all of Telesco's draft picks with the Chargers was 7.52. The average for Hortiz's picks this year was 8.41.
Tau837
Footballguy
I realized I did not post a link to this post back in February: A Look at Ravens Drafts 2019-2023
This is what gave me optimism about the Chargers drafts going forward. And I think Hortiz delivered in this draft. I'm hopeful this is the new norm we can expect going forward.
This is what gave me optimism about the Chargers drafts going forward. And I think Hortiz delivered in this draft. I'm hopeful this is the new norm we can expect going forward.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
"Good" Telesco drafts were the ones where good players fell into his lap in the 1st round, the obvious choices, like Herbert, James, Bosa, and then fell apart beginning in round 3.
"Bad" Telesco drafts are the ones where there are somewhat non obvious decisions to make, and he blows them. Like QJ last year. Also with disastrous picks from round 3 on.
"Horrific" Telesco drafts are the ones where he sheds draft picks to move up. And then screws up from round three on as always.
This year was a "good" Telesco draft for the Raiders.
"Bad" Telesco drafts are the ones where there are somewhat non obvious decisions to make, and he blows them. Like QJ last year. Also with disastrous picks from round 3 on.
"Horrific" Telesco drafts are the ones where he sheds draft picks to move up. And then screws up from round three on as always.
This year was a "good" Telesco draft for the Raiders.
Tau837
Footballguy
Using the NFL Mock Draft Database 2024 Consensus Big Board:
1.13 (13) - TE Bowers - ranked 7, good value
2. (44) - C JPJ - ranked 30, good value
3. (77) - OL Glaze - ranked 152, so picked 75 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
4. (112) - CB Richardson - ranked 149, so picked 37 picks higher than that ranking... seems like poor value
5. (148) - LB Eichenberg - ranked 133, solid value
6. (208) - RB Laube - ranked 177, solid value
7. (223) - FS Taylor - ranked 210, fine value
7. (229) - DB Devonshire - ranked 185, good value, though mildly surprising they took Taylor with the earlier 7th round pick
I don't know much about these players other than Bowers and JPJ, and I don't follow the Raiders enough to know about their roster, so I can't comment too intelligently about this draft. I want to also note that it should be expected that there is more variance between team draft boards and consensus rankings deeper in the draft, let's say day 3, so 4th round and later.
Some positives include drafting 8 players, more than Telesco's average with the Chargers, and not trading up, something he did multiple times with the Chargers with poor results.
That said, his 3rd and 4th round picks may undermine the overall value of this draft, which was a consistent problem for Telesco with the Chargers. Teams should be getting starters or impactful rotation players in those rounds.
The other problem with this draft could be that they did not land a QB. The draft did not fall in a way that helped them do that, but they could have chosen to trade up for one and didn't.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Thanks. It just seems the fans liked this draft. Maybe he learned his lesson.
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Looks like they are signing Chark.
Tau837
Footballguy
I'm surprised at this. It seems to mean that one of these WRs will not make the final roster: Davis, Rice, Johnson.
The team must have known they were going to sign Chark at the time of the draft. That makes it surprising to me that they used their last pick on WR Johnson, who may very likely not make the final roster. For example, they could have drafted Harbaugh's center at Michigan, Drake Nugent. He went undrafted and signed as a UDFA with the 49ers. Maybe Harbaugh didn't want him, but he is just an example. They could have drafted any player who became a UDFA.
Tau837
Footballguy
So add Chark. I assume that means Davis, Rice, and Johnson will be battling for 1-2 roster spots.
This is also interesting because it implies that Johnston or Palmer is going to be WR4, barring injuries, since I'm now expecting Chark and McConkey to be in the top 3.
TheWinz
Footballguy
The Chargers D gets no love in this article...
sportsnaut.com
2024 NFL defense rankings: Evaluating all 32 defenses after the 2024 NFL Draft
Who has the best defense in the NFL? Our NFL defense rankings analyze D/ST with our weekly rankings of the best NFL defenses in 2024.
sportsnaut.com
Early projection for LAC to get 3 6th round picks next year for losing Everett, Ekeler and Murray.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Is Chark any good at this point? Seems like a warm body vet to have around in case the younger guys fall flat. I don't think Davis is on the bubble either, he's too good at returning, and with the new rules, returners got a bit of a bump. I think Johnson will be the odd man out, with an eye toward getting him to the practice squad. Has anybody seen Chark's contract details yet? Any chance they cut him before the season starts if they like what they see from the other receivers?
Tau837
Footballguy
I disagree.
First, on Chark. He signed a 1 year deal worth up to $5M. I'm sure there must be incentives in that value, but I also assume he got a signing bonus. IMO it seems likely that he would have to get hurt or perform very badly in camp/preseason in order to fail to make the final roster. I assume his signing bonus is small enough that they will be able to afford to cut him if needed, it would just be a waste of cap space. It has been posted elsewhere on this site that he may very well have been signed as insurance for Johnston, meaning Johnston will get first shot, but Chark is there in case Johnston continues to disappoint. That seems like a reasonable take IMO, and it implies that Chark makes it into the season.
As for Davis, I now think there is a very real possibility that he gets cut or traded. I posted some relevant stuff at BFTB on this:
As I said in those posts, I'm not predicting he won't make it, but I think it is very possible. IMO the green text is the easiest way to sum it up.
Tau837
Footballguy
Here are a couple good articles about the new kickoff rules from the Athletic:
Making sense of NFL’s new kickoff rule and what it means for next season (March 26)
How did new kickoff rules affect NFL Draft? ‘You can either complain or adapt’ (May 6)
I'm becoming more convinced that Davis is not going to make the final roster. They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
Making sense of NFL’s new kickoff rule and what it means for next season (March 26)
How did new kickoff rules affect NFL Draft? ‘You can either complain or adapt’ (May 6)
I'm becoming more convinced that Davis is not going to make the final roster. They still need a punt returner, and he is a very good one (2nd team All Pro last season)... but can they devote a 46 man gameday active roster spot to Davis if that is really his only differentiating contribution?
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
It's hard to say with any certainty. He's only five years removed from being a Pro Bowler and still quite young (27). It could be argued that his 2022 season was about as good as his Pro Bowl year, just with fewer opportunities. Other than that one year with Goff, the best-performing QB he has had throwing to him has been Minshew (followed by rookie-year Trevor Lawrence).
His career catch rate is only 55.4%. By comparison, Quentin Johnston managed a 56.7% catch rate last year. His career success rate is just 46.7%, compared to 2023 Johnston at 47.8%. But Chark's never had a quarterback nearly as good as Herbert throwing to him. But then again, many of Johnston's starts occurred after Herbert was lost for the season.
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Everything you said makes sense, and I too am convinced he is likely on the chopping block, but I'll also say that the Chargers rostered David Binn for 17 years, and he only contributed on punts and kicks (not kickoffs).
Tau837
Footballguy
That's true. It is certainly the norm to use a roster spot on a dedicated long snapper. I wonder how feasible it is to have a player who is good enough to be the regular long snapper but also could contribute on offense, defense, or other special teams units...? I don't know of any examples, but maybe there are some out there. That would be a way to gain a small roster advantage.
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Probably havent been many. Particulary since the risk likely doesnt outweigh the reward.
If that guy gets hurt running down on coverage teams, or tackling a dude on D, etc. then your punt/PK units are pretty much boned, for the rest of that game at least.
Id expect most coaches would prolly rather just not sign a 10th DL, or 7th WR, and roster a dedicated guy for LS
Despyzer
Lousy Attention Whore
Kind of like how we haven't seen any QBs who are also the designated punter and/or kicker since Danny White.
Tau837
Footballguy
They signed Dupree for 2 years, $6M plus up to $4M in incentives. Not sure if that's what you meant here. No doubt in my mind Rumph is out barring injuries ahead of him.
This is going to be quite a substantial year to year roster turnover. As of now, I would update my post-draft prediction of the final 53 man roster (starters in bold):
- Offense (25)
- QB (2) - Herbert, Stick
- RB (4) - Edwards, Dobbins, Vidal (R), Spiller
- FB (1) - Mason
- TE (3) - Dissly, Hurst, Parham
- WR (6) - Johnston, Palmer, McConkey (R), Chark, Rice (R),
Davis, Johnson (R)- The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that Davis makes it solely to return punts
- OL (9) - LT Slater, LG Johnson, C Bozeman, RG Pipkins, RT Alt (R), OL Salyer, IOL McFadden, IOL Jaimes, G Barnhart (R)
- I don't think Barnhart is a lock, but I think that 9th spot will not be a carryover player like Sarell
- Defense (25)
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Tuli, Dupree,
Rumph - IDL (6) - Ford, Eboigbe (R), Fox, Ogbonnia,
Matlock, Hinton, Mason (UDFA R)- I certainly don't think Ogbonnia or Hinton are locks, just don't know who to project to replace either of them
- LB (5) - Colson (R), Perryman, Henley, Niemann, Dye
- CB (6) - Samuel, Fulton, Taylor, Leonard, Hart (R), Still (R)
- UDFA Harper could also play slot corner, so I could possibly see him making it there over Taylor, but that seems like a long shot
- S (4) - James, Gilman,
Woods, Dent (UDFA R), Harper (UDFA R)- I could also see UDFA Phillips having a shot, and I will be surprised if the team does not sign a veteran safety to be #3 and play when James moves into the slot/box in 5 DB
- Edge (4) - Bosa, Mack, Tuli, Dupree,
- Special Teams (3)
- PK (1) - Dicker
- P (1) - Scott
- LS (1) - Harris
Tau837
Footballguy
I still don't think Davis is getting dropped.
We'll see. IMO he will have to earn a bigger role on offense to hold his roster spot, and I don't think he can do that, since he is too small to be an effective run blocker. Maybe he'll prove me wrong. I would be happy with that, since it would imply he will deliver more value than he did last season.
