* Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun * (1 Viewer)

themeistersinger · May 4, 2024

One night with Ukrainian drone hunters near Russia

Editor’s note: Due to the security protocols of the Ukrainian military, soldiers featured in this story are identified solely by first names and call signs. SUMY OBLAST – Soldiers from one of Ukraine’s 117th Territorial Defense Brigade mobile air defense squads call themselves fowlers. The...

kyivindependent.com

Don't Toews Me · May 5, 2024

Ukrainian Armed Forces to receive prototypes of long-range artillery shells from Rheinmetall

North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger

A missile that crashed in Kharkiv shows the surprising scale at which Pyongyang's weapons are used.

www.bbc.com

On 2 January, a young Ukrainian weapons inspector, Khrystyna Kimachuk, got word that an unusual-looking missile had crashed into a building in the city of Kharkiv. She began calling her contacts in the Ukrainian military, desperate to get her hands on it. Within a week, she had the mangled debris splayed out in front of her at a secure location in the capital Kyiv.

She began taking it apart and photographing every piece, including the screws and computer chips smaller than her fingernails. She could tell almost immediately this was not a Russian missile, but her challenge was to prove it.

Buried amidst the mess of metal and spouting wires, Ms Kimachuk spotted a tiny character from the Korean alphabet. Then she came across a more telling detail. The number 112 had been stamped onto parts of the shell. This corresponds to the year 2023 in the North Korean calendar. She realised she was looking at the first piece of hard evidence that North Korean weapons were being used to attack her country.

"We'd heard they had delivered some weapons to Russia, but I could see it, touch it, investigate it, in a way no-one had been able to do before. This was very exciting", she told me over the phone from Kyiv.

Since then, the Ukrainian military says dozens of North Korean missiles have been fired by Russia into its territory. They have killed at least 24 people and injured more than 70.

For all the recent talk of Kim Jong Un preparing to start a nuclear war, the more immediate threat is now North Korea's ability to fuel existing wars and feed global instability.

Ms Kimachuk works for Conflict Armament Research (CAR), an organisation that retrieves weapons used in war, to work out how they were made. But it wasn't until after she had finished photographing the wreckage of the missile and her team analysed its hundreds of components, that the most jaw-dropping revelation came.

It was bursting with the latest foreign technology. Most of the electronic parts had been manufactured in the US and Europe over the past few years. There was even a US computer chip made as recently as March 2023. This meant that North Korea had illicitly procured vital weapons components, snuck them into the country, assembled the missile, and shipped it to Russia in secret, where it had then been transported to the frontline and fired - all in a matter of months.

"This was the biggest surprise, that despite being under severe sanctions for almost two decades, North Korea is still managing to get its hands on all it needs to make its weapons, and with extraordinary speed," said Damien Spleeters, the deputy director at CAR.

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1787052350558908733

My assumption that a lack of missiles (IRIS-T SL) is the limiting factor in the deliveries of IRIS-T SLM air defence systems to #Ukraine seems to be confirmed.

Members of the Bundestag (members of the Budget Committee) Andreas Schwarz, Sebastian Schäfer and Karsten Klein were in Ukraine (not for the first time) and shared their impressions with SPIEGEL.

During a visit to an IRIS-T SLM launcher, they noticed that it was equipped with only one missile instead of the maximum capacity of eight. According to the Ukrainian soldiers, the system delivered by Germany is extremely efficient, but they can hardly use it anymore because they lack the missiles.

To clarify: According to Diehl Defence, they produce up to 500 missiles per year (it is unclear whether only IRIS-T SL or also IRIS-T). Of course, not only do missiles have to be produced for new systems, but existing batteries in Ukraine also have to be regularly equipped with new missiles.

The requirements naturally grow with every system supplied to Ukraine, and it makes not a lot of sense to supply plenty of new systems to Ukraine when you can't even maintain the existing systems.

Only on Monday did the German government publicise the delivery of an unknown number of IRIS-T SL missiles to Ukraine to supply the systems already delivered. Another IRIS-T SLM system was also to be delivered to Ukraine at the end of April (delivery not yet confirmed).

Don't Toews Me · May 5, 2024

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786915509788610761

Russian forces occupied Kotlyarivka, most of Arkhanhelske, and the remainder of Ocheretyne. They also advanced in Krasnohorivka and elsewhere along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk front.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1787109888834867282

The below map is bad for many reasons. But one particular reason it’s bad is that the Russians are now less than 10km/6 miles from the strategically important T0504 highway connecting key Donetsk region cities of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk. Having fire control over it would make logistics difficult for Ukrainian forces on the eastern front. Also, as Russian forces strengthen their flanks and push north from Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske, it will put the embattled towns of Niu-York and Toretsk under greater pressure and make it harder to supply troops holding them.

Russia, an embarrassing source of profit for major international banks

Foreign banks still present in the country have paid some €900 million in income tax for 2023, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.

www.lemonde.fr

More than two years after the invasion of Ukraine, 21 international banks are still operating and making money in Russia, to a total of $3.5 billion in 2023, according to a Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) study published on Wednesday, April 24. These profits have also generated $970 million in revenue for Russian tax authorities, representing additional resources for the state budget and therefore, potentially, for financing the war effort.

Among banks cited in the KSE study are American heavyweights Citibank and Italian UniCredit, as well as lesser-known names such as Hungary's OTP and Austria's Raiffeisen Bank International, by far the most exposed.
Established in most of the former communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe for over 30 years, Raiffeisen has developed a significant network of retail banks in Russia, to the point of being included in the list of systemically important institutions drawn up by the Central Bank of Russia. This strong presence is reflected in the company's financial results: in 2023, its Russian activities still generated over €2.6 billion in revenues and €1.34 billion in profits, or 52% of its total earnings.

For Raiffeisen, as for the other banks targeted, profits generated in Russia are not in themselves illegal, in the absence of a total embargo against the country. Nicolas Véron, an economist at the Bruegel Institute in Brussels and the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, pointed out that "if European banks remain [in Russia], it's because European companies are continuing to trade with the country. It remains to be seen whether banks need a presence in retail banking. One can pursue commercial transactions with banks in Russia without necessarily providing retail banking services to Russian army soldiers and their veterans."
Since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine, Raiffeisen has maintained that it's seeking the best way to withdraw from the Russian market. However, it is not willing to accept a costly exit, unlike, for example, France's Société Générale, resigned to a loss of €3.1 billion when it sold its Rosbank subsidiary.

Don't Toews Me · May 5, 2024

Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn

Assessments suggest Kremlin agents preparing covert bombings, arson and attacks on infrastructure

www.ft.com

European intelligence agencies have warned their governments that Russia is plotting violent acts of sabotage across the continent as it commits to a course of permanent conflict with the west.
Russia has already begun to more actively prepare covert bombings, arson attacks and damage to infrastructure on European soil, directly and via proxies, with little apparent concern about causing civilian fatalities, intelligence officials believe.
While the Kremlin’s agents have a long history of such operations — and launched attacks sporadically in Europe in recent years — evidence is mounting of a more aggressive and concerted effort, according to assessments from three different European countries shared with the Financial Times.
Intelligence officials are becoming increasingly vocal about the threat in an effort to promote vigilance.
“We assess the risk of state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of German domestic intelligence. Russia now seems comfortable carrying out operations on European soil “[with] a high potential for damage,” he told a security conference last month hosted by his agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution.

One senior European government official said information was being shared through Nato security services of “clear and convincing Russian mischief”, which was co-ordinated and at scale.
The time had come to “raise awareness and focus” about the threat of Russian violence on European soil, he added.
Nato issued a statement on Thursday declaring its deep concern about growing “malign activities on allied territory” by Russia, citing what it said was an “intensifying campaign . . . across the Euro-Atlantic area”.
The growing fears over Russia’s appetite for physical damage against its adversaries follow a spate of accusations against Russia over disinformation and hacking campaigns.
On Friday, Germany vowed consequences for Moscow — in a statement backed by the EU and Nato — over a 2023 hacking attack on the social democratic party of chancellor Olaf Scholz.
A scandal exposing Russian attempts to co-opt far right European politicians ahead of upcoming European elections is meanwhile still unfolding.

One intelligence official said Moscow’s sabotage efforts should not be seen as a distinct from other operations, saying the ramp-up in activity reflected Russia’s aim to exert maximum pressure “across the piece”.
Putin is currently feeling “emboldened” and will seek to push lines as hard as he can in Europe, on multiple fronts, he said, whether through disinformation, sabotage or hacking.
Increased aggression from Russian intelligence also reflects the desire for the country’s spymasters to reassert themselves after their most serious setback since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In the weeks following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than 600 Russian intelligence officers operating in Europe with diplomatic cover were ejected, dealing serious damage to the Kremlin’s spy network across the continent.

Russia amasses 25K-strong force near Chasiv Yar - Ukraineâs Khortytsia Grouping spox

The enemy has massed up to 25,000 forces in the area of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

The enemy has massed up to 25,000 forces in the area of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region.
That’s according to Nazar Voloshyn, the spokesman for the Khortytsia Grouping of Troops, who spoke on the air of the national telethon, Ukrinform reports.

"On the Chasiv Yar axis, the enemy has amassed a grouping of 20,000-25,000 servicemen," said Voloshyn.
He noted that Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Novopavlivka areas remain the hottest spots in the Khortytsia operational zone. The situation has escalated in the last week as fierce fighting continues.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1787022132997706229

A decree signed by the pro-Russian governor of Zaporizhzhia Oblast states that Russia is preparing the necessary infrastructure and measures for military conscription in Russian-occupied areas of Zaporizhzhia.
This would be the first conscription drive in this temporarily occupied territory since its illegal annexation by Russia in September 2022. It is likely that Russia sees this measure as a way of satisfying the need by the Russian Armed Forces for additional personnel to support its war effort. The effect of the decree is likely to be limited given that a significant proportion of the population of Zaporizhzhia has departed. For instance in Melitopol, the largest city in Zaporizhzhia under Russian control, only 40% of the pre-war population remain and a half of those consist of ethnic Russians offered work in the city.

Scale of GPS malfunctions expands, Russia is responsible, Finnish foreign minister says

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has reported that Finland has noticed increased activity by Russia recently in jamming GPS signals in the Gulf of Finland and around the eastern border.

www.pravda.com.ua

Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen has reported that Finland has noticed increased activity by Russia recently in jamming GPS signals in the Gulf of Finland and around the eastern border.

Source: Finnish public broadcaster Yle, citing Valtonen, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The broadcaster previously reported a surge in GPS jamming in the Gulf of Finland and around the eastern border.

Pilots in Finland have also reported hundreds of cases of GPS failures affecting air traffic over the past year.

"I will not give an exact date, but it is obvious that the scale of GPS jamming has expanded during Russia's aggressive war and has changed its form in many ways," the Finnish foreign minister said.

Valtonen noted that GPS jamming may affect civil aviation, but there is no cause for concern.

The minister stressed that air traffic in Finland is safe and that GPS malfunctions have not caused any incidents in the air.

The minister noted that aircraft have alternative navigation tools in case GPS equipment is temporarily unavailable.

Valtonen added that the jamming may be related to Russia's attempts to protect its own critical infrastructure amid the war it has been waging against Ukraine.

The Z Machine · May 5, 2024

Russian aggression seems to have no limits.

Don't Toews Me · May 6, 2024

https://twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1787380414857777169

Russian MoD announced preparations for conducting exercises in the near future of the Southern Military District (missiles, aviation, Navy) with the aim of increasing the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces to carry out combat tasks 1/x

Russian MoD announced that during the exercise, a complex of measures will be carried out to practically work out issues of preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons 2/x
Russian MoD announced that the exercise is aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment of units employing non-strategic nuclear weapons to respond and to unconditionally ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state 3/x
Russian MoD announced that exercises of non-strategic nuclear weapons will take place in response to provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials directed at the Russian Federation 4/4
"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday that Macron’s recent statement & other remarks by British & US officials had prompted the nuclear drills" - I think this is the first time Russia says its nuclear exercises are a response to some specific event

https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1787394105179349381

This is, of course, a signal. "In response to provocative statements and threats made by some western officials." One thing to avoid is getting sucked into this. The right response is to double down on "nuclear threats are inadmissible" and rally everyone around that.

https://twitter.com/walberque/status/1787386263793738037

Russia MOD announced an exercise:

“…a set of activities will be carried out to practice the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons…to respond and in order to unconditionally ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state” 1/4
“…On behalf of the RF Armed Forces Supreme Commander, to increase the readiness of NSNW forces to carry out combat missions, the GS has begun preparations for holding an exercise in the near future with missile formations of the SMD with aviation and naval forces…” 2/4
“…to practice the preparation and use of NSNW…”

“….The exercise is aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment of units for the combat use of NSNW…in response to provocative statements and threats of individual Western officials against the RF.” 3/4
Real-time nuclear signaling, with deterrent and escalation messaging from Russia.

Every state has the right to conduct exercises, but the “in response to” part is definitely designed to be inflammatory. Interesting to see the response from the US, UK, France, and/or NATO. 4/4

Don't Toews Me · May 6, 2024

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1787443079621779723

Russian development for fighting Ukrainian one-way attack drones—three machine guns mounted together with a collimator sight.

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1787460093937693167

Russians are testing MiS-35 heavy multirotor drone.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1787471899796074526

Ukraine’s top general, Col-Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said he met with commanders of units from Ukraine’s Khortytsia OSUV fighting in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, which he described as “the direction of the enemy’s main attack.” He said Russia, exploiting its numerical advantages in men and materiel, aims to reach Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, while Ukrainian forces are tasked with holding the line and inflicting maximum losses to “exhaust” the enemy and buy time for Ukraine to form and train reserves.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1787408928927572248

Minister for Strategic Industries of Ukraine Oleksandr Kamyshin said that both Denmark and Canada have agreed to finance the production of weapons such as armoured vehicles and UAVs by the Ukrainian defense industry.

Don't Toews Me · May 6, 2024

EU proposes first sanctions on Russia’s LNG sector

Until now, the EU hasn’t targeted Moscow’s lucrative gas sector. The proposed sanctions would hit about a quarter of Russia’s LNG revenues.

www.politico.eu

For the first time, the European Commission has proposed sanctions on Russia's powerful liquefied natural gas industry, according to documents seen by POLITICO.

The measures wouldn’t directly bar Russian LNG imports to the EU. Instead, they would prevent EU countries from re-exporting Russian LNG after receiving it — confirming POLITICO’s previous reporting.

"This provision does not affect imports into the EU," the proposal stresses.

The sanctions would also ban EU involvement in upcoming LNG projects in Russia. "Such a measure limits the expansion of Russia’s LNG capacity and thereby limits Russia’s revenues," the proposal argues.

Russia will have to increase its missile arsenal to deter the West, diplomat says

Russia will have to increase its entire missile arsenal to deter the West as Moscow is now in an open confrontation with the United States and its allies, a Russian diplomat was quoted as saying on Monday.
President Vladimir Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine touched off the worst breakdown in relations between Russia and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, according to Russian and U.S. diplomats.
Russia has ramped up weapons production and is now forecast by the United States to manufacture this year more artillery than all of NATO's 32 members combined.
"We are now at the stage of open confrontation, which, I hope, will not result in a direct armed conflict," Russian Ambassador-at-Large Grigory Mashkov told the state RIA news agency.
Accordingly, Mashkov said, it will be necessary to take "further steps to strengthen the country's defense capability, including building up the missile arsenal, in order to discourage any potential enemy from testing Russia's strength."
Mashkov said Russia was already doing a lot in this area but that more was needed given what he said was the growing threat from the West and the technological advances in most types of missiles, from tactical to inter-continental.

Under Putin, a militarized new Russia rises to challenge U.S. and the West

In ambition and scale, Putin’s effort to mold a new national identity is “as profound as the Russian October Revolution,” a member of the Moscow elite with contacts in the Kremlin said, referring to 1917, when Vladimir Lenin’s Bolsheviks seized power. “He overturns all the values,” this person said. “He cuts all the usual ties.”

Russia’s elite, meanwhile, has hardened against the West, according to one billionaire living outside Russia.
“Everyone is very anti-West; that’s all you hear,” the billionaire said. “Anti-West, anti-West, anti-West. And it will increase, the longer this war goes on — and it could go on for 10 years or more.”

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1787550466995281921

An account from a Ukrainian soldier who uses an ATV to resupply troops and evacuate casualties from the front line, "smaller vehicles are harder to hit with a FPV drone".
@RFERL

'No Time For Fear': Ukraine's Frontline Quad Bikes Dash To Rescue Wounded

On Ukraine's frontline, quad bikes are increasingly used to rescue wounded soldiers from the battlefield, as they are small, fast and maneuverable. "Kasper" ...

youtube.com

https://twitter.com/andrius_sytas/status/1787520823831453931

France will send its ambassador to the inauguration of Russian President Vladimir Putin for his next six-year term in office on Tuesday, a French diplomatic source said, in contrast with Germany and the Baltics which said it would not be represented.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1787548402785333308

After consulting with my friends from the Ukrainian 92nd Assault, 26th, and 47th Artillery Brigades, I have decided to shift my fundraising goals toward engineering equipment, specifically excavators.

Why are small excavators so important for the infantry? I spoke with an infantry battalion commander from one of the assault brigades to better understand this. Please read quotes from him:

"Our brigade has one or two PZM2 trenchers, and they are always either broken or in use. We lack the manpower to build proper fortifications, and the infantry often ends up not digging deep and long enough trenches because they are exhausted from endless combat and shelling. I can't afford to have them in a trench for six days and then digging another trench for six more days; they need to rest."
I asked if they would be able to dig the fortifications when enemy FPVs fly by: "Now is the perfect time for that, because of the greenery, we can relatively safely build trenches inside the treelines 2-5 km away from the frontline. If we have a small 2-8 ton excavator, it can discreetly operate inside the treeline without breaking all the trees. It’s mobile and easy to use. Yes, we will have a risk of delivering it quickly enough to the treeline and back, but I'd rather risk it driving in the open for 15 minutes than having my infantry stuck in knee-deep trenches without proper ceiling layering with three layers of logs."
"They save the lives of our infantry. If you carefully examine the latest videos, you can see that the only thing between the infantry and the enemy FPV is the fortifications."
"No, we won’t use the excavator on the front line; we will use them to build fallback positions, positions for drone operators, and for the command posts."

So I've spoken about the infantry, but why does artillery need them?

To better understand this, I spoke with one of the artillery brigade commander's deputies. Please read his comments:

"Let’s not start the blame game; it’s just the reality. We only have one excavator based on a Kraz for digging, and it’s always under repairs or maintenance."
"Remember how many videos there were of our machines struck by lancets? Well, you see less now. We are taking measures, and those measures work. With properly built fortifications, it’s only a direct hit from a 152mm shell or a missile that can destroy the howitzer."
"With excavators, we hide our equipment deep, we build separate ammo storage, and we build a bunker for the crew."
"How long do you think it takes to dig a fortification to conceal a Krab with shovels? At least two weeks, and while the crew is building it, it can’t operate. If you think that’s not enough reason, I will give you another one: we had crew members injuring themselves while digging, breaking bones, two people got injured at the same time. This affected howitzer operations; you can’t properly operate it if you have two people missing."
"With an excavator that you gave us, it takes us only two days and requires three times fewer people to build a Krab shelter, two ammo storages, and a bunker for the crew."

As you can see, the engineering equipment is highly needed, so this month I want to set an ambitious goal to acquire three excavators, get funds for repairs, and build protective cages for Bohdana howitzers against FPVs.

In response to the above: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1787555228272730376

That three brigades are asking for excavators and engineering equipment as the priority gives you a sense of their needs.

Don't Toews Me · May 6, 2024

Netherlands plans to begin F-16 aircraft deliveries to Ukraine in autumn

The Netherlands plans to start delivering its F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this autumn after Denmark begins transferring its aircraft already in the summer, Dutch Defense Minister Kaisa Ollongren said during a press briefing in Vilnius, Delfi reported on May 6.

kyivindependent.com

The Netherlands plans to start delivering its F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this autumn after Denmark begins transferring its aircraft already in the summer, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said during a press briefing in Vilnius, Delfi reported on May 6.

Previously, the Netherlands has pledged to deliver 24 of its fourth-generation U.S.-made jets to Ukraine as Kyiv seeks to bolster its Air Force.

Speaking alongside her Lithuanian counterpart Laurynas Kasciunas, Ollongren said that the deliveries are part of a detailed plan also involving training for Ukrainian pilots and maintenance personnel.

If the allies manage to stay on course, the first Danish F-16s should arrive in Ukraine this summer, she added. The Netherlands hopes to take part in the deliveries starting this autumn.

The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have pledged to supply Ukraine with dozens of F-16 jets.

Denmark, the Netherlands, and the U.S. have led an international coalition established last year to provide Kyiv with F-16 fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots.

German chancellor backs EU plan to use frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine arms

Around 90% of the revenues generated from Russian frozen assets should be spent on arms purchases for Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday, supporting an earlier EU proposal to use Russian assets' interest payments to boost Ukraine defence.
"It is important that we also agree that this money can be used for arms purchases not only in the EU, but for purchases worldwide," Scholz told journalists after a meeting with members of the three Baltic countries governments in Riga.
In March, the European Union's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell proposed taking take 90% of revenues from Russian assets frozen in Europe and transfer them to an EU-run fund that finances weapons for Ukraine.
Some 70% of all Russian assets immobilised in the West are held in the central securities depository Euroclear in Belgium, which has the equivalent of 190 billion euros ($204.67 billion) worth of Russian central bank securities and cash.
Germany and the three Baltic states are pushing for a rapid expansion of arms production in Europe, Scholz said, adding production of ammunition and air defence systems had already been increased.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said Europe's defence industry was struggling with financing problems and uncertainty for long-term production capacity but that she was optimistic about the planned Rheinmetall factory in Lithuania.

Pentagon sees no change in Russia's strategic nuclear force posture

The Pentagon has not seen a change to Russia's disposition of its strategic nuclear forces, it said on Monday, despite what it called "irresponsible rhetoric" from Moscow detailing plans for exercises involving the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia said on Monday it would hold military drills that will include practicing the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons after what Moscow said were threats from France, Britain and the United States. It said the exercises were ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Missile forces in the Southern Military District, aviation and the navy will take part, the defense ministry said.
"We've not seen any change in their strategic force posture. Obviously, we'll continue to monitor," said U.S. Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson.
The exercise of what Russia calls its non-strategic nuclear forces were aimed at ensuring Russia's territorial integrity and sovereignty, its defense ministry said.

Spanish defense minister: Ukraine receives Patriot missiles from Madrid

Ukraine received Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from Madrid, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles announced on May 6, according to EFE news agency.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine has received Patriot anti-aircraft missiles from Madrid, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles announced on May 6, according to the EFE news agency.

Robles confirmed arrival of missiles less than 10 days after promising to deliver them to Kyiv at the Ramstein-format summit. Patriot missiles were sent by Spain in coordination with other allied countries, she said.

Italian defense minister calls for truce in Ukraine, peace negotiations with Russia

The comments indicated a change of heart from Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, who said in November 2023 that the "time is not yet ripe" for ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

The West should seek a truce in Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said in an interview with the newspaper Il Messaggero published on May 6.

The comments indicated a change of heart from Crosetto, who said in November 2023 that the "time is not yet ripe" for ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Western sanctions against Russia have failed, Crosetto said, adding that "we can only resolve this crisis by involving everyone: first with a truce and then with peace."

Russia’s Budget Is Getting Twice as Much Oil Money as a Year Ago

Russia’s oil revenue more than doubled in April from a year earlier, despite international sanctions intended to limit the flow of money to fuel President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.
Proceeds for the Russian budget from oil-related taxes jumped to 1.053 trillion rubles ($11.5 billion) last month compared to nearly 497 billion rubles in April 2023, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data. Total oil and gas revenues in April increased nearly 90% year-on-year, to 1.23 trillion rubles, according to the data.
Rising prices for Russia’s crude helped to drive the increase in budget revenue. State taxes in April were calculated based on a Urals price of $70.34 per barrel, up from $48.67 a year ago when it was dampened in the wake of a price cap the Group of Seven nations imposed on Russian oil exports, data from the Federal Tax Service show.
To be sure, a weaker ruble also contributed to the revenue growth: the April tax calculations are based on an exchange rate of 91.69 rubles per dollar, 20.5% weaker than a year before, according to the tax service data.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...
Three reasons behind Russia’s robust revenue despite sanctions are:
(i) oil prices remain supported by strong global demand, constrained supply and geopolitical premia, (ii) Russia’s newly built export infrastructure, which increasingly relies on shippers, insurance and customers outside the sanctioning coalition, and (iii) Russia’s increasingly tight control over exporters’ cash flows.
Alex Isakov, Russia economist

Russia will collect around $126 billion in oil and gas tax revenue in 2024, according to Bloomberg Economics calculations. The figures are “just a hair above the current government’s projections,” said Alex Isakov, Bloomberg Economics Russia economist.
“Russia would break even on its war budget if Brent were to exceed $95, but its fiscal position will remain relatively sustainable at oil prices north of $70,” he said.

Chadstroma · May 6, 2024

MSN

A drone and grenade vs a T-72B3

Don't Toews Me · May 6, 2024

Poland will keep paying for over 20,000 Starlink terminals for Ukraine

The Polish government will continue paying for operation of more than 20,000 Starlink terminals which Warsaw supplied Ukraine with.

www.pravda.com.ua

The Polish government will continue paying for operation of more than 20,000 Starlink terminals which Warsaw supplied Ukraine with.

Source: Mykhailo Fedorov, Deputy Prime Minister for Innovations, Development of Education, Science and Technology and Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine

"Poland is our consistent partner in digitalisation. It has provided over 20,000 Starlink terminals which became a part of critical infrastructure, they supply Ukrainians with connection and the Internet," Fedorov noted following a meeting with Krzysztof Gawkowski, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Digitalisation of Poland.

In addition to this, Poland will prolong the subscription fee of these terminals.

Russians again actively using Shaheds, preparing for massive attacks â Ukrainian Air Force

After a lull, the enemy has intensified the use of Shahed strike drones and is preparing for massive attacks against Ukraine. â Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

After a lull, the enemy has intensified the use of Shahed strike drones and is preparing for massive attacks against Ukraine.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Illia Yevlash announced this on Ukrainian television, Ukrinform reports.

"The enemy is planning and preparing for the next attacks. We cannot know their strategic plans for sure, but the enemy is most likely analyzing the strikes he carried out against our energy infrastructure and believes that some of his goals have been achieved. However, to constantly carry out attacks, he needs to accumulate his missiles. Therefore, we are currently observing a certain lull," Yevlash said.

Ukrainian Drone Boats Now Armed With Adapted Air-To-Air Missiles

Videos show a clash between a Ukrainian drone boat armed with an adapted AA-11 Archer and the Russian helicopter sent to hunt it.

www.twz.com

In a most unusual development in the Black Sea ‘drone war,’ Ukraine appears to have begun arming uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), better known as drone boats, with heat-seeking air-to-air missiles. The adaptation seems to have been made to provide the USVs with protection against the Russian helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft that are increasingly being used to counter them, although many questions remain about how these newly added weapons are intended to work and just how practical the arrangement is.

Don't Toews Me · May 7, 2024

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1787728005520863660

Video of the landing on Snake Island two years ago by Ukrainian SBU Alpha from a Mi-8 helicopter.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1787726641260536063

Rare view inside of a Ukrainian command bunker, this one from the 225th Separate Assault Battalion.

Note the dozen plus drone streams running at the same time, with individual units live-streaming drone feeds back to the post.

Media: Satellite images show Russia stopped using Kerch for military logistics in Ukraine - Euromaidan Press

Russian forces no longer using the Crimean bridge earlier targeted by Ukraine to transport military supplies, now relying on overland routes, satellite imagery shows.

euromaidanpress.com

Satellite images show Russia no longer using the Crimean bridge to supply troops in Ukraine after repeated Ukrainian attacks on the vital link between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, occupied since 2014, Independent says.

According to an analysis by Ukraine’s private intelligence agency Molfar, Moscow has rerouted its military supplies, switching to using overland routes through occupied eastern Ukrainian regions like Donetsk to transport matériel to its front lines. This shift comes in the wake of successful strikes in 2022 and 2023 by Ukrainian forces targeting the 19 km Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia.
Molfar’s examination of satellite imagery from Maxar reveals that almost no Russian military freight trains have traversed the Crimean bridge over the past three months. The only exception was a single train carrying around 55 fuel tankers crossing on 29 February.

The analysis notes a stark decline in Russian military traffic on the bridge following a Ukrainian drone attack on 17 July 2023 that damaged sections of the roadway and rail line. Prior to this strike, Russia was operating over 40 weapons-laden trains daily across the strategic bridge, while now traffic is now down to just four passenger trains and a single general goods freight train a day, according to Ukrainian security service head Vasyl Maliuk, Independent says.

Ukrainian colonels arrested over ‘Russian plot to assassinate Zelensky’

The two security officials were allegedly recruited by Moscow before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022

www.thetimes.co.uk

Ukraine has detained two security officials allegedly involved in a plot co-ordinated by Russia to assassinate President Zelensky, Kyiv’s state security service has announced.
Two colonels in the State Guard of Ukraine, which protects top officials, were detained on suspicion of enacting the plan drawn up by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), a statement said.
The colonels were recruited before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

Ukraine says it foiled Russian plot to kill Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Ukrainian security service claims to have uncovered network of FSB agents planning assassination

www.ft.com

Ukraine has said it uncovered a network of Russian agents in the country that planned to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, including two colonels who worked for the agency in charge of his security.
The Ukrainian domestic intelligence service (SBU) on Tuesday said the two were tasked by Moscow with finding people in Zelenskyy’s security detail who would take the president hostage and later kill him.
The agency they worked for, known as the State Protection Service, oversees security for Ukraine’s president as well as ministers and other top officials.
One of the colonels, the SBU said, had purchased weapons and drones for the operation and was recorded in conversation with his handlers at the FSB, the Russian spy agency.
In addition to Zelenskyy, the agents planned to kill the head of the SBU, Vasyl Malyuk, and the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanov, as well as other high-ranking officials.
The kill plan for Budanov, according to the SBU, was to target a building he was in with a rocket strike and attack any people who remained in the affected area with drones. Then the Russians planned to use a second missile strike to destroy any traces of the drones, it said.
In a taped conversation published on the SBU’s website, an alleged FSB agent in Moscow tells one of the Ukrainian colonels they will receive upwards of $50,000 for the Budanov assassination.

Don't Toews Me · May 7, 2024

Head of Polish intelligence: Putin ready for mini-operation against NATO, but observes Western reaction

The head of Polandâs military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, suggests that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is already prepared for a small-scale military operation against a NATO country.

www.pravda.com.ua

The head of Poland's military counterintelligence service, Jarosław Stróżyk, suggests that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is already prepared for a small-scale military operation against a NATO country.

Source: European Pravda, citing Stróżyk in an interview with Polish publication Dziennik Gazeta Prawna

Stróżyk noted that all forecasts regarding Russia's readiness for a potential attack on a NATO country from analytical centres lacking full information are based solely on certain assumptions.

However, he admitted that the Kremlin leader already has the capability to organise a small-scale operation against an Alliance member state.

"Putin is certainly already prepared for some mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries, for example, to enter the famous Narva [municipality in Estonia – ed.]. Or – to land on one of the Swedish islands," Stróżyk said.

He added that despite Putin's intentions, he is currently being held back by the West's stance. "What the West is doing together to support Ukraine shows him that in the event of an attack on NATO, the Western response would be even greater," believes the head of Poland's military counterintelligence service.

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine comes up with new ways to hit Russian vessels

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) says that Ukrainian special forces are constantly inventing new methods to destroy Russian vessels in temporarily occupied Crimea.

www.pravda.com.ua

Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) says that Ukrainian special forces are constantly inventing new methods to destroy Russian vessels in temporarily occupied Crimea.

Source: Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for DIU, on the air of Radio Liberty, commenting on the destruction of the Russian high-speed patrol boat Mangust

Quote: "They (the Russian occupiers –ed.) certainly draw conclusions and try to build new defences in different ways in different areas. Of course, they try to take it into account. But in the end, both Magura (marine drone) operators and DIU special forces do not attack in the same way every time. They act differently.

Therefore, despite the fact that they try to hide ships, move them, conceal them, and build new barriers, they find new ways to show that the DIU and Magura are working extremely effectively. Another US$3 million is real estate that is already on the seabed."

The Z Machine · May 7, 2024

$50k seems like not much to risk everything...

Don't Toews Me · May 7, 2024

Fire and hide: Ukraine's artillery pinned down by Russian drones

Rumbling out of its forest hideout, the hulking German-supplied howitzer has only a few minutes to fire before slipping back under cover to evade Russian surveillance in the skies above.
Across the hills and valleys of the east, Ukrainian artillery units play a cat-and-mouse game with Russian drones hunting high-value artillery weapons such as this self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000.
Moscow's troops have stepped up ground attacks along the 1,000-km (621-mile) front in the south and east of Ukraine, threatening some of the industrialised Donetsk region's last big cities held by Kyiv more than two years after Russia's full-scale invasion.
Counterbattery efforts are crucial to suppressing enemy fire that rains on Ukrainian lines and artillery units, and paves the way for Russian advances.
Crews including the one Reuters recently visited, part of the 43rd Artillery Brigade, say they face increasing harassment from enemy drones that have become a staple of Russia's arsenal.
"There were (attacks) before, but not the same amount," said battery commander "Lyova", 27, using his call sign. "Now it's really scary."

Lyova, who is from western Ukraine, said his unit had been directly hit four times by Russian high-tech Lancet attack drones. Crew members remained largely unharmed thanks to the Panzerhaubitze's armour.
Russian reconnaissance drones such as the Orlan or the more advanced Supercam are a particular nuisance, said senior battery officer Andriy Stavnychyi.
"Sometimes it happens that there's lots of work for the day, but we can't move because something is always flying above," Stavnychyi, 31, told Reuters during a visit to the unit's underground command post.
Enemy surveillance drones often pose a greater risk to Ukrainian artillery units than Russian counterbattery radar, according to Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
The Panzerhaubitze rotates among multiple hiding spots around the unit's position, which the Ukrainian military requested not be disclosed. They are nestled deep in tree cover and feature hand-built wooden frames that shroud the vehicle.

Stavnychyi echoed other Ukrainian troops and senior officials who have called for more electronic warfare systems to jam Russian drones.
Western-supplied artillery such as the Panzerhaubitze is a priority target for Moscow, which has pledged to focus its strikes on such weapons.
Battery commander Lyova said Russian forces have at times piled pressure on their unit, including through the laser-guided Krasnopol artillery system that eventually struck one of the hideouts. It was not critically damaged.
"Before that, they fired around 50 (standard) shells throughout a day and a half, but couldn't hit it," he said.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said last month Moscow would intensify strikes on Ukrainian storage bases that house Western-supplied weapons.
Lee, the FPRI expert, said weakened Ukrainian counterbattery capabilities meant Russian forces "can be more aggressive about how they employ artillery."
"They can move it closer, they don't have to necessarily change positions that often," he said.

Like other Ukrainian artillery units, the 43rd Brigade battery faces a critical shell shortage that limits the Panzerhaubitze's potential.
Ukrainian troops across the sprawling front are anxiously awaiting shipments from a long-delayed $61-billion U.S. military aid package.
The Panzerhaubitze gunners said they lacked the proprietary 155mm shells designed to maximize its efficiency and range of around 40 km.
Longer-range ammunition would allow them to target analogous Russian self-propelled guns far behind the front line, and keep them further back to protect from Russian counterbattery fire.
Although well-supplied during a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive last year, Lyova's unit now fires far fewer shells per day - only between eight and 15, he estimated.
Repairing the vehicle is also a challenge, with availability of spare parts limited and a navigation system that frequently malfunctions but is difficult to fix on the battlefield.
Stavnychyi, the senior officer, said some parts could be swapped among the Italian and Dutch artillery pieces also under his command.
"But even if there were parts and shells, you'd have the problem of enemy 'birds'," he said, referring to drones.
"So everything needs to work together in a system: electronic warfare and surveillance, (and) artillery. Then our hit percentage would be much higher."

Exclusive: Ukraine examines N.Korean missile debris amid fears of Moscow-Pyongyang axis

Ukrainian state prosecutors say they have examined debris from 21 of around 50 North Korean ballistic missiles launched by Russia between late December and late February, as they seek to assess the threat from Moscow's cooperation with Pyongyang.
In previously unreported details of an investigation under way into the missiles, the office of Ukraine's top prosecutor, Andriy Kostin, also told Reuters that the failure rate of the North Korean weaponry appeared to be high.
"About half of the North Korean missiles lost their programmed trajectories and exploded in the air; in such cases the debris was not recovered," Kostin's office said in written answers to Reuters' questions.
North Korean missiles account for a tiny portion of Russia's strikes during its war on Ukraine, but their alleged use has caused alarm from Seoul to Washington because it may herald the end of nearly two-decade consensus among permanent members of the United Nations Security Council on preventing Pyongyang expanding its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

The prosecutor's office said that when debris could not be collected at impact sites, Hwasong-11 missiles, which are also called KN-23 in the West, were identified by looking at their flight trajectories, speed and launch sites.
The last recorded use of a KN-23 was on Feb. 27, the prosecutor's office said, adding that the total number of launches it has identified tallied with intelligence showing North Korea delivered about 50 ballistic missiles to Russia.
According to the United States, Russia received ballistic missiles and artillery rounds from North Korea after the country's leader, Kim Jong Un, met Russian President Vladimir Putin for a rare summit last September.
The 21 cases, in which debris was collected, include three that were fired at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and its surrounding region, Kostin's office said. The others struck the regions of Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk and Kirovohrad.
The attacks, which began on Dec. 30, 2023, killed 24 people, wounded 115 and damaged a number of residential buildings and industrial facilities, it said.
The about 50 missiles were launched from multiple sites including in Russia's western regions of Belgorod, Voronezh and Kursk, it added.
The Ukrainian statement did not say whether any of the missiles had been shot down by air defences. Ballistic missiles are typically hard to intercept because of their trajectory and speed.
According to Kostin's office, Ukrainian authorities were still investigating whether Pyongyang had dispatched instructors to monitor the ballistic missile launches.

beer 30 · May 7, 2024

Chadstroma said:
I saw an article but can't find it now outlining the Russians have effectively countered some of our equipment. Apparently the Abrams have been pulled off frontline because they have been losing them to drone attacks and the Excalibur munition has seen a drastic drop in effectiveness due to Russian electronic warfare changes they have made to counter them among some others.

Yea, read the same thing, maybe on X? Anyhow, this isn't it but it does discuss the shortcomings of some of the weapons we've sent over there

Ukraine pulls US-provided Abrams tanks from the front lines over Russian drone threats

Two U.S. officials say Ukraine has sidelined U.S.-provided Abrams M1A1 battle tanks for now in its fight against Russia.

apnews.com

Don't Toews Me · May 7, 2024

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1787913436489232838

Italy allows the use of its own weapons provided to the Ukrainian Armed Forces only within the territory of Ukraine, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said, ANSA reports.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1787912532339945777

The "Kraken" special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (HUR MO) released footage from its operations around the frontline city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces are currently advancing.

The footage also showcases the scale of destruction caused to the city of Chasiv Yar by Russian bombardment.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1787926322594931144

From an interview with an Abrams tank commander from Ukraine's 47th Mechanized Brigade.

Regarding the recent report that Abrams were removed the battlefield. There have been a number of videos over the past few days showing Abrams in combat. 2/

The crew compliments the Abrams' accuracy, stabilization, thermal optics, and maneuverability. They also say the Abrams Reactive Armor Tile (ARAT) is effective, but they don't have reactive armor for the turret, which is the biggest shortcoming. They say the depleted uranium anti-tank rounds are effective, but they need more fragmentation rounds to perform other missions. The gunner and driver both said it was easy to learn how to operate. The driver says it would be effective in tank battles but that isn't the environment they are fighting in.

Link to Youtube video reference above

Don't Toews Me · Wednesday at 12:08 AM

Romanian president says he is open to discussing sending Patriot system to Ukraine

Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said on Tuesday he was open to discussing sending a Patriot system to Ukraine after German appeals to European Union and NATO member states to bolster Ukraine's air defences.
"There has been a discussion about who can send Patriot systems to Ukraine," Iohannis told reporters in Washington after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden. "President Biden mentioned it ... in our meeting and I said I was open to discussion."

Belarus conducts tactical nuclear inspection together with Russia

Belarus has begun checks on the readiness of its army to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, state media said on Tuesday, simultaneously with preparations for a nuclear drill being carried out by Russia.
State news agency Belta quoted Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying President Alexander Lukashenko had ordered a surprise inspection of forces in charge of such weapons.
During the inspection, "the entire range of activities from planning, preparation and use of strikes with tactical nuclear weapons will be checked," Khrenin said.
The checks involved an Iskander missile division and a squadron of Su-25 aircraft, he added.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1787948114348847452

The Ukrainians hit a fuel depot in Russia-controlled city of Luhansk tonight.

Russian military-affiliated channel "Archangel of Spetsnaz Z" claimed that the AFU used MGM-140B ATACMS Block IA missiles, recently delivered by the US.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1787939353131426006

The first video of the confirmed destruction of a Supacat HMT-based AIM-132 ASRAAM "Franken-SAM" launcher in service of the Ukrainian military by Russian forces in Ukraine.

The vehicle was hit with a ZALA Lancet loitering munition, which caused fire and ammunition cook-off.

Don't Toews Me · Wednesday at 1:56 PM

EU agrees €3B raid on Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine

Late concession by Belgium paved way for deal on using profits to buy ammo for Kyiv’s war effort.

www.politico.eu

The EU approved a plan to use the profits generated by investing frozen Russian assets to buy weapons for Ukraine.

Ambassadors meeting in Brussels on Wednesday gave the go-ahead after Belgium signaled a climbdown on the way it treats tax revenue on the cash — the last major obstacle to deal.

The profits generated by investing Russia’s assets immobilized in Belgium— where a large part of the assets frozen in Europe are kept — are worth between €2.5 billion and €3 billion per year.

“The money will serve to support #Ukraine‘s recovery and military defence in the context of the Russian aggression,” the Belgian government, which holds the six-month rotating presidency of the EU, said in a message on X, formerly Twitter.

Ninety percent of the profits will be used to buy weapons, while the remaining 10 percent will go towards non-military aid.

The agreement paves the way for the EU to send the money to the war-torn country in July.

UK boots out Russian diplomat, brands him a spy

The U.K. government is expelling Russia’s defense attaché and tightening diplomatic visa rules.

www.politico.eu

The British government will expel Russia's London defense attaché after accusing him of spying for the Kremlin.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-targets-energy-facilities-air-attack-ukraine-officials-say-2024-05-08/

Russian missiles and drones struck nearly a dozen Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities on Wednesday, causing serious damage at three Soviet-era thermal power plants and blackouts in multiple regions, officials said.
Ukraine's air force said it shot down 39 of 55 missiles and 20 of 21 attack drones used for the attack, which piles more pressure on the energy system more than two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

Ukraine's national power grid operator Ukrenergo said it was forced to introduce electricity cut-offs in nine regions across, adding it might have to expand them nationwide during peak hours.
Officials urged Ukrainians to limit consumption.

Ukraine orders nationwide electricity rationing after Russian airstrikes

Ukrainian officials on Wednesday said they were preparing to order electricity rationing measures across the country after a major overnight missile strike by Russia — the latest in a relentless bombing campaign against civilian infrastructure.
Brownouts “are possible throughout Ukraine” between 6 p.m. and 11 p.m., the state energy provider, Ukrenergo, said in a statement posted on the Telegram social media platform. The statement cited a “shortage of electricity in the power system.”
The Russian strikes, which lasted more than three hours overnight, targeted energy infrastructure in six Ukrainian regions. Ukraine’s power plants, electrical grid and other infrastructure have become particularly vulnerable as Western countries have struggled to supply Kyiv with sufficient air defense systems and ammunition.
“Restrictions will be evenly distributed across all regions,” Ukrenergo wrote. “Exactly how the shutdown schedules will operate in each region will be published on the official pages of local regional energy companies.”
In the early hours of Wednesday, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 39 missiles and 20 drones. Sixteen missiles, including two ballistic missiles, and one drone pierced the shield, the Ukrainian air force said on Telegram.
Missiles damaged three thermal power stations belonging to the country’s largest power supplier, DTEK, the company said in social media posts. DTEK did not specify where the stations were located.
“Another extremely difficult night for the Ukrainian energy industry,” DTEK said in its statement, adding that this was “the fifth massive shelling of the company’s energy facilities in the last one and a half months.”
DTEK, which provides about 20 percent of Ukrainian electricity, said that 80 percent of its available generating capacity has been damaged or destroyed.
Russian missiles and drones also targeted the Kyiv region, damaging houses and injuring two people, the head of the Kyiv military administration, Ruslan Kravchenko, wrote on Facebook.

Don't Toews Me · Wednesday at 2:10 PM

Ukraine reaches parity with Russia on production of deep strike drones, says arms maker

Ukraine said on Wednesday it was producing the same number of deep strike drones as Russia, claiming to have reached parity on a key type of weapon that Moscow has used for long-range attacks for much of its invasion.
Unable to rapidly match Russia's vast arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles, Kyiv has focused on developing and producing long-range drones so it can hit back at Russia, which has bombed Ukraine throughout the 26-month-old invasion.
"In 2024, Ukraine caught up with Russia in terms of the production number of kamikaze drones similar to the Shahed-131 and Shahed-136," Herman Smetanin, head of Ukraine's state arms manufacturer, told the defence ministry's media outlet, ArmyInform.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency says that Russia is capable of producing up to 350 Shahed drones a month. Russia does not reveal production figures and regards such things as secret.

Ukraine moves to send convicts to the front line — minus the rapists and killers

Those convicted of particularly serious crimes, and some categories of corrupt officials, will not be allowed to choose the front over a jail cell.

www.politico.eu

In an attempt to bolster troop ranks, the Ukrainian parliament on Wednesday passed a bill on the voluntary mobilization of convicts for the country's war with Russia.

However, those who committed serious crimes including murder, rape, terrorism, dealing drugs and treason, will be ineligible to trade their jail terms for the defense of their country.

So, what's in it for the convicts? If they decide to mobilize, local courts may grant them conditional early release in exchange for their military service, on the basis of a contract.

Thereafter, they will be returned to prison only if they commit another crime before the end of their service; they must also serve until Kyiv announces demobilization.

After weeks of pressure from civil society, parliament ruled that MPs and some top government officials who have committed crimes would be ineligible to have their sentences commuted, Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak said in a Telegram post from the parliament on Wednesday.

Other prisoners, as long as they weren't convicted of a serious crime, face one condition — no more than three years may remain before the end of their sentences. Requests to be allowed to fight in exchange for freedom must be approved by the courts.

The Anti-Corruption Action Center, a Kyiv-based watchdog, called the vote “a victory with a bitter taste,” given that not all types of corrupt officials were excluded from the law's provisions.

“The list [of those excluded] does not include officials of the President's Office, heads of state-owned enterprises, investigators, prosecutors and judges. Thus, part of the work of anti-corruption bodies in previous years may go under the cat's tail [be in vain],” the watchdog said in a statement.

“After all, many judges, prosecutors and other officials convicted of corruption are already serving their sentences, [and] will now be able to use this mechanism and get out of prison.”

Desperate for recruits after a six-month delay in declaring mobilization, Ukraine’s MPs took a page straight from the book of Russia's Wagner Group mercenary force — which also allows convicts to reduce their jail terms through military service.

The lawmakers hope a regulated, voluntary process will allow Kyiv to mobilize up to 10,000 convicts for the war. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must sign the bill before it can take effect.

Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group attempted to infiltrate Kharkiv Oblast

A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group of up to ten people has attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian territory near the village of Pylna in Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukrainian defenders promptly detected the saboteurs.

www.pravda.com.ua

A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group of up to ten people has attempted to infiltrate Ukrainian territory near the village of Pylna in Kharkiv Oblast. However, Ukrainian defenders promptly detected the saboteurs.

Source: Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group (OSG) of Ukrainian forces, in an interview with Interfax Ukraine

Quote: "The enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group was promptly detected, and was fired upon. As a result, the enemy ceased executing their tasks and, having suffered losses, returned to the neighbouring territory of the Russian Federation."

Details: The spokesman noted that over the past few days, the enemy has intensified the use of sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the Kharkiv front. He said that the Russians are attempting to enter Ukrainian territory from the neighbouring territory.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia's need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine. Putin thanked Russian citizens, the residents of Russia’s “

www.understandingwar.org

Russia reportedly continues to coerce university students into working at Russian defense industrial base (DIB) factories. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's northwestern Russia service Sever Realii reported on May 6 that Russia is forcing students at the Baltic State Technical University in St. Petersburg to sign work contracts with Russian DIB companies, likely to assemble drones or other military equipment, on threat of expulsion.[77] The students will reportedly receive a salary of 60,000 rubles per month (about $650). Russian authorities previously compelled high-school- and university-age students to produce Shahed drones at the Alabuga Polytechnical College in the Republic of Tatarstan.[78]

Russian military and civilian aircraft manufacturer and Russian state-owned defense conglomerate Rostec subsidiary, Yakovlev (formerly Irkut), has reportedly been successfully bypassing international sanctions and procuring military equipment from abroad since 2022. Russian outlet the Moscow Times reported that Yakovlev, which manufactures Su-30 fighter aircraft and Yak-130 combat trainer jets, has purchased almost $500 million worth of military equipment from abroad since 2022.[79] Russia notably sent at least Yak-130 jets to Iran in September 2023.[80] The Moscow Times reported that Yakovlev mainly purchased components for radar equipment and programmable controllers for military aircraft.

Don't Toews Me · Wednesday at 2:15 PM

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1788131616801353768

The Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) Long Range Aviation Command (LRA) has increased the lethality of its premier Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) by operationally fielding the AS-23 KODIAK fitted with a second warhead.

The LRA Command has sought to modify its systems and tactics throughout the conflict to: increase survivability as too many missiles were being intercepted by Ukrainian air defence systems; enhance capabilities to have greater effect; and use up older missiles as the VKS had depleted more modern systems in the early days of the conflict.

This latest modification has likely reduced the range of the AS-23 by half. The LRA does not need the full range to hit all of Ukraine. The second warhead is designed for increased fragmentation at the target. It is likely that this will make the system more effective in striking non-hardened targets.

Russia is trying to get access to Ukraine military support data â Polish minister

Russia is using cyberattacks to attempt to gain access to information on volumes of military aid, given Polandâs key role as an arms supply hub for Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

Russia is using cyberattacks to attempt to gain access to information on volumes of military aid, given Poland's key role as an arms supply hub for Ukraine.

Source: Krzysztof Gawkowski, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Digitalisation of Poland, in an interview with Ekonomichna Pravda

Details: The number of Russian cyberattacks on Polish infrastructure doubles every year, forcing the Polish government to create a cyber shield.

Polish experts have consistently recorded Russian attempts to hit critical infrastructure, including water supply systems and the healthcare and finance sectors. There are also attacks on government online resources and local authorities.

As Poland is an important hub for arms supplies to Ukraine, Russia is constantly trying to gain access to information on this assistance. The logistics hub in Rzeszów, located near the Ukrainian border, is under special cyber protection.

Lithuania ready to deploy training troops in Ukraine, no Kyiv request yet, PM says - Euromaidan Press

Lithuania PM says she has parliamentary permission to deploy training troops to Ukraine, but is awaiting Kyiv's request, while ignoring possible Russian threats.

euromaidanpress.com

Lithuania is prepared to send its soldiers to Ukraine on a training mission, its prime minister Ingrida Šimonytė has told FT.

Don't Toews Me · Wednesday at 2:46 PM

Czech shell update: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/interview-petr-pavel-100.html

ARD: The Czech ammunition initiative has caused quite a stir in Europe. In Germany, there was talk of "Czech grenades" or even "Pavel grenades". When will the first of these shells arrive in Ukraine? And why is it taking so long?
Pavel: The more sides know about the initiative, the more competition there will be. On the one hand, it was necessary to make the initiative public in order to gain the support of other countries, but on the other hand, we also revealed our cards, which Russia is now taking advantage of, of course. This is one of the reasons why the initiative is not progressing as quickly as we would have liked. Together with our Prime Minister Petr Fiala, I assume that the first approximately 180,000 pieces of ammunition will be delivered in June, and there are already contracts for another five-six-digit number of shells.

ARD: These purchases must be paid for. And it seems that the financing has not yet been fully clarified. Has part of the West already lost hope for Ukraine's victory?
Pavel: I wouldn't say that he has lost hope, but throughout the war in Ukraine, the West has been very cautious in its support. From the outset, the aim was to prevent the conflict from escalating.There were long debates about each new stage before it was finally delivered. If we had skipped this period of reflection and risk assessment, Ukraine would have received this aid months, maybe even years, earlier and the situation could be different.We should learn from the past and now provide aid to the fullest extent possible and as quickly as possible to prevent Ukraine from losing more territories and lives.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1788146607503945787

1/ UAC delivered a batch of new-build Su-35S multirole fighters to the Russian MoD (specifically, to the VKS). This is the second batch of new-build Su-35Ss delivered in 2024. Unclear how many aircraft in this batch; the video accompanying UAC's press release appears to show two.

Video: https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1788195712246673834

Russian start-ups continue to develop "budget" (cheap) versions of combat drones flying with the military - this Tatarstan-based company developed a "Tatar" ISR drone as a cheaper equivalent to Supercam UAV - its range is 20-30km, can be manufactured quickly and in large numbers, and is apparently easy to operate and fly.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1788187483668099432

Photo of the warhead from this Russian Kh-69 air-launched cruise missile. A copper covering is used to protect electronics from electromagnetic interference.

Soldier downs two Russian missiles using Igla man-portable air defence system â Ukrainian Air Force

A soldier from the Kherson Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade destroyed a Russian cruise missile using an Igla man-portable surface-to-air missile system in the skies over the south of Ukraine on the morning of 8 May.

www.pravda.com.ua

A soldier from the Kherson Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade destroyed a Russian cruise missile using an Igla man-portable surface-to-air missile system in the skies over the south of Ukraine on the morning of 8 May.

Source: press service of the Ukrainian Air Force command on social media

Quote from the shooter, Oleksii (his surname was not disclosed): "We received information about a Russian attack and immediately started to conduct a visual observation. Along with the commander and fire adjuster, we used thermal imagers and a laser pointer, and soon had the Russian missile in our sights. Dawn was breaking at the time, and it is harder to shoot down an enemy cruise missile at this time as it is less visible."

Details: Oleksii notes that at times like this, the most important thing is to keep your cool and be confident. The target was destroyed – the Russian cruise missile exploded in mid-air.

This is the second cruise missile Oleksii has downed using an Igla since the beginning of the full-scale war. Oleksii returned to military service after mobilisation. Earlier, in 2016-2020, he participated in the Anti-Terrorist Operation and the Joint Forces Operation. He has received a number of awards and honours.

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 10:31 AM

https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1788545773900087668

A Ukrainian attack drone has flown a record 1,500 km into Russia to strike an oil refinery in Salavat, Bashkiria. According to the Baza telegram channel, the drone hit the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery's catalytic cracking unit.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1788537584932503921

The strikes on "Salavatnefteorgsintez" oil refinery in Russia's Republic of Bashkortostan were carried out by Ukrainian SBU, sources told RBC-Ukraine.

According to reports, the drone launched by the SBU set a historical record by flying the distance of 1,500km.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1788481542156689656

" Russia’s reconnaissance satellite program is plagued by continuous failures, delays, and satellite-poor life cycles. This persistent decline and the increasing gap [with the] US & allies stem from pervasive corruption, an aging workforce and brain drain, and low...investment"
"Among the multiple intelligence failures [in Ukraine] a shortage of satellites, insufficient reconnaissance data, a deficit of high-resolution imaging, and delays in disseminating crucial information to Russian forces play a significant role."
"decline in Russian satellite reconnaissance capabilities is having implications for international stability, Russia’s role in future nuclear arms–control treaties ... [It] impairs future treaty verification, raising uncertainties in nuclear arms control."

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1788501184950464566

Aftermath of the alleged Ukrainian strike on the Luhansk oil depot on May 7th, observed through @planet LR satellite imagery taken on May 8th. At least 3 fuel tanks were completely destroyed; further damage is expected to be visible in the HR imagery, which we are still awaiting.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1788460991300112569

Russian soldiers are openly patrolling the (admittedly small) Victory Day Parade column with handheld drone jammers, presumably guarding against a potential Ukrainian UAV attack.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1788481770767212632

This T-34, the legendary Soviet tank from World War II, was the only Russian tank on display at the Victory Day parade in Red Square today. The others must all be busy somewhere!

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 10:47 AM

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1788483359137529863

"In late April, Serhii Prokopenko, the head of operations at Ukraine's [cyber centre], speculated...Russia used cyber operations in tandem w/ missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure to collect information about the damage caused"
'CERT-UA thinks, "with high certainty", a disruptive cyber attack on the Ukrainian mobile operator Kyivstar was carried out in order to amplify the effect of missile strikes carried out before and after.'

https://twitter.com/martinmatishak/status/1788252039434412359

On Russian cyber activity against Ukraine:

"The shift is now focusing more with Russian intelligence services conducting intelligence collection versus preparing for a computer network attack operations," @NSA_CSDirector.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1788494317717241971

In April 2024, Russian attacks intensified in eastern Ukraine, rising by 17 per cent from March 2024. Of these, more than three-quarters were located in the Avdiivka, Chasiv Yar, and Marinka areas of the front line.

Attacks in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar rose by 200 per cent from March to April. This is almost certainly a reflection of Russia's renewed attempts to gain control of the town - situated on high ground to the west of Bakhmut.

Despite the substantial increase in attacks on this axis, Russia made only minor tactical gains in the area during April and almost certainly sustained heavy losses.

Western military trainers could go to Ukraine, Lithuania minister says

Gabrielius Landsbergis also backs David Cameron and Emmanuel Macron on standing up to Putin

www.theguardian.com

Lithuania’s foreign minister has raised the prospect of an ad hoc coalition of western countries sending military training personnel into Ukraine backed by ground-based air defence, days after Russia took an increasingly strident tone against what it sees as the threat of deeper western involvement in the war.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1788527415792132141

"The head of the cybersecurity department at Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU), Illia Vitiuk, has been formally dismissed from his post following an investigation into his personal finances."
"Vitiiuk is not the first Ukrainian cyber official suspected of financial abuse. In November, two high-ranking cybersecurity officials in Ukraine were dismissed amid an investigation into suspected embezzlement of state funds"

National Security Daily

Although presidential elections have been delayed due to the war, Valery Zaluzhny is something of a folk hero in Ukraine — which could translate into electoral power.

www.politico.com

The European Union today approved using the interest from seized Russian assets to help arm Ukraine and fund the country’s reconstruction, at least one NATO member state is all in.

“I think we have a firm, legal basis for using those assets,” Poland’s Foreign Minister RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI told NatSec Daily during his recent visit to Washington.

Using that money — about $3 billion per year in interest that’s part of about $300 billion in assets overall — would not only punish Russia but also relieve some of the burden on the international community in helping areas of Ukraine shattered by more than two years of Russian bombardment.

“Russia knows that it’s not seeing that money, ever,” Sikorski said. “The real issue is whether we release the money to Ukraine now or after the war … Why wait for the Russians to destroy Ukraine when we can help to protect it?”

Poland has been outspoken about punishing Russia for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine since the start. But with tens of billions in new weapons purchases and a defense budget that has shot to one of the largest in Europe over the past several years, Warsaw is increasingly taking a leadership role in the NATO alliance.

While he didn’t take a victory lap, Sikorski explained Warsaw’s long-held position on Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s ultimate aims in Europe, and the trouble he has caused for years.

“We were right when some were mocking us — and we do feel vindicated,” the foreign minister said. “We don't expect apologies but … You were wrong. We were right. Listen to us now,” he added, referring to Western countries.

When it comes to the seized Russian assets, Sikorski said he’s heartened by the major change in how the U.S. views using the seized assets. In 2022, during his last visit to Washington while a member of the European Parliament, American officials told him, “‘No way, we never do this unless there is a state of war.’ And now the U.S. is in the lead on the issue.”

Overall, Sikorski willingly laid into Putin, who is increasingly isolated on the world stage aside from partnerships with China, North Korea and Iran.

“What a strategic fool Putin is, with the current attacks of the Houthis in the Red Sea…Russia could be making good income — and with the world's approval — developing the northern route” in the Arctic, which is turning into an attractive commercial shipping route as the sea ice melts.

Instead, Sweden and Finland joined NATO, he said: “I wouldn't call that a success of the great strategist.”

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 5:48 PM

Russia sees window of opportunity to expand attacks as Ukraine awaits further US aid, officials say

Western intelligence believes Russia is seeking to exploit what it sees as a “window of opportunity” to further step up air and ground attacks on Ukraine to take advantage of the time it will take new weapons and ammunition from the newly passed US military aid package to arrive in significant quantities, three officials with direct knowledge of the latest assessments told CNN.

The officials said there will be a lag time between the approval of the funds and the arrival of the majority of the assistance that will make a significant difference on the frontlines, a delay which they believe Russia will seek to exploit.

Western and Ukrainian officials view the near-term threat of stepped-up attacks as tied to Russian plans for a larger offensive early this summer. US and Ukrainian officials remain concerned about a further partial mobilization by Russia to send more manpower to the frontlines, as Ukraine is struggling with its own manpower shortage.

As for Ukrainian prospects during the coming weeks, even with the arrival of new assistance, one US military official told CNN, “It is hold the line at best.”

Ukraine now has drones rescuing fallen drones from hazardous battlefields - Euromaidan Press

A Ukrainian unit is now using drones equipped with ropes and grappling hooks to retrieve fallen drones from minefields and enemy-controlled areas

euromaidanpress.com

In a remarkable display of ingenuity, a Ukrainian unit is now using drones equipped with ropes and grappling hooks to retrieve fallen drones from minefields and enemy-controlled areas, reducing the risk to soldiers’ lives.

BBC segment: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1788669407956435279

"Russians are constantly being told their country was, is and always will be unbeatable. Yet Russia is paying a heavy price for its war in Ukraine." Our report from Moscow as Russia marks Victory Day. Producer @LizaShuvalova Camera @AntonChicherov @BBCNews

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1788666559495278849

Zelensky sacked head of the Office of State Protection, Ukraine’s equivalent of the secret service, days after two of its colonels were accused of involvement in a plot to assassinate the Ukrainian president. Zelensky issued a decree dismissing Serhiy Rud.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1788654428813168781

Video of an abandoned Russian T-80BV tank with a roof screen and EW jammer destroyed by a drone-dropped grenade from Ukraine’s Shadow Unit from April. A T-80BVM tank also caught fire in the explosion.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1788660711515652162

A Ukrainian T-72 tank adapted into an improvised BTR with counter-UAV screens. There was a similar example of an adapted T-64 tank seen last year.

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 5:59 PM

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1788635594798608481

Apparently, one of the rare Patriot radars in #Ukraine is no longer working. The German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius spoke at a press conference in Washington about the fact that a Patriot radar has been out of action “for some time” and needs to be replaced.

He (Pistorius) also discussed this with Raytheon during his visit to the US. Specifically, the question was whether it would be possible to “generate” an additional radar from spare parts from several radars. This is currently still under review.

The minister did not talk about why the radar is out of action. It could therefore have been caused by shelling, technical failure or a different reason.

I would like to point out once again that Germany has already delivered an additional Patriot radar to Ukraine, probably already last year. The delivery has not yet been officially confirmed by the German government (which is very unusual), despite the delivery being confirmed via the leaked conference call of high-ranking Bundeswehr soldiers earlier this year.

It could therefore be that Germany made the unplanned delivery to compensate for the failure of a Patriot radar in Ukraine and is waiting, so to speak, until Ukraine gets a “new” one to get its own radar back.

Ukraine to Receive US-Made Mobile Rocket Systems Paid by Germany

Ukraine will receive three HIMARS mobile rocket systems from US stocks with Germany footing the bill, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Thursday.
Pistorius, who revealed the plan after talks with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon, said the idea emerged during the extended wait for $61 billion in US aid to Ukraine. Congress passed the assistance as part of a national security package in April.
“Time was of the essence,” Pistorius told reporters. “So we offered to take over, pay for and deliver three systems from US army stocks.”
HIMARS, manufactured by Lockheed Martin Corp., has proven effective against Russian supply routes and ammunition dumps far behind the front lines.
In Washington, Pistorius sought to convey the message that Germany was taking on greater military responsibilities, including in the defense industry, since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This year, Germany will spend the most on defense since its post-Nazi armed forces were established after World War II, he said.
“We understand what is at stake,” he said in a speech to the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “We cannot simply watch and wait as international law, our order and our values are being destroyed.”
“We are paying our share,” he said.
Pistorius, a Social Democrat like German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, also said he favors returning Germany to “some kind of military conscription.”
Germany suspended compulsory military service in 2011 under then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Pentagon Teams Up With SpaceX to Block Russia From Using Starlink

Pentagon officials working with Elon Musk’s SpaceX have blunted the Russian military’s unauthorized use of Starlink internet terminals on the battlefield in its war with Ukraine, according to the Defense Department’s space policy chief.
The US has been “heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals,” John Plumb, the outgoing assistant secretary for space policy, said in an interview.
“At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems,” he told Bloomberg News. Although “it will continue to be a problem, I think we’ve wrapped our heads around it and found good solutions with both Starlink and Ukraine.”
Plumb declined to elaborate on what tactics, techniques or procedures are being used to stem Russia’s use of the highly portable communications terminals that connect to SpaceX’s fleet of low-orbiting satellites. Ukrainian government officials had no immediate comment.
Starlink terminals continue to be advertised for sale in Russia on platforms such as e-commerce site Ozon. Their sellers say they function through subscriptions taken out in the name of residents of European countries where the technology is licensed, and they say that connections work — not within Russia’s heartlands but near border regions such as Ukraine’s occupied territories.
This week, however, users complained of unprecedented connectivity issues. On the messaging app Telegram one of the sellers recommended transferring onto a more expensive global service plan. Bloomberg hasn’t been able to independently verify whether those workarounds restore connectivity for illicit Starlink use in Russia.

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 6:06 PM

Zelensky appoints new Special Operations Forces head

President Volodymyr Zelensky has replaced Colonel Serhii Lupanchuk as the commander of Ukraine's Special Operations Forces. Brigadier General Oleksandr Trepak is Lupanchuk's replacement.

kyivindependent.com

President Volodymyr Zelensky has dismissed Colonel Serhii Lupanchuk from his role as the commander of the Ukrainian military's Special Operations Forces (SOF), according to a presidential decree published online on May 9.

A separate decree announced Brigadier General Oleksandr Trepak as the force's new commander.

Lupanchuk has served as the SOF's commander for the near past six months since his appointment on Nov. 3, 2023.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1788593392080826796

Interesting video showing the Ukrainian 40th Artillery Brigade carrying out remote mining with Remote Anti-Armor Mine System (RAAMS) 155mm shells, fired from Polish-supplied AHS Krab SPG.

As a result, multiple Russian armored vehicles from the advancing column hit the mines when they drive through the mined area.

Secret weapons factories operate in Ukraine, some of them underground

The El Mundo newspaper, citing a source in the Ukrainian arms industry, has written that a network of hidden factories producing weapons has emerged in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion.

www.pravda.com.ua

The El Mundo newspaper, citing a source in the Ukrainian arms industry, has written that a network of hidden factories producing weapons has emerged in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Source: Radio Svoboda (Liberty) with reference to El Mundo publication

Details: The source of El Mundo said that some of these factories are located underground, while others are hidden behind "huge scenery".

El Mundo's source also noted that the issue of keeping the location of these plants secret is of particular concern to Kyiv, as "traitors" have already been found among the employees of the factories.

It is noted that the construction of the hidden network of production facilities is being overseen by Oleksandr Kamyshin, the Minister of Strategic Industries.

El Mundo wrote that these factories are currently producing ammunition, all types of drones, Kozak armoured combat vehicles, Neptune missiles and Stugna anti-tank missiles.

El Mundo states that production volumes have tripled since the 2023 launch, the source said.

Border police: Number of Ukrainian men fleeing to Slovakia more than doubles

Under martial law, Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, with some exceptions, are not allowed to leave the country as they may be called up for military service.

kyivindependent.com

The number of military-age men caught fleeing Ukraine and attempting to cross into Slovakia more than doubled in the first four months of 2024, compared with the same period of 2023, the Slovak border police said on May 9.

Under martial law, Ukrainian men aged between 18 and 60, with some exceptions, are not allowed to leave the country as they may be called up for military service.

Speaking to AFP, Slovak border police said 338 Ukrainians were detained and released in the first four months of 2024, compared to 166 over the same period in 2023.

"In the first week of May, we captured 45 men on the green border," spokesperson Agnesa Kopernicka said, adding: "In the same period of last year, this number was four."

Don't Toews Me · Thursday at 11:57 PM

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1788719465921667390

#BREAKING: Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Kaluga Oblast of Russia (over 300km from the border with Ukraine) tonight.

According to SHOT, locals heard the characteristic sound of a UAV in the sky before a number of explosions occurred.

This facility was already attacked by the Ukrainians in March.

Ukraine’s defenders anxiously dig in for a looming Russian assault

The West’s delays on weapons help Vladimir Putin exploit superior numbers

www.economist.com

But walk inside and you find yourself in the headquarters of the air-defence battalion of Ukraine’s legendary 92nd assault brigade. It is currently fighting in Chasiv Yar, the most intense part of the Donbas front. Behind the house, steps lead down through a trench and into a large van, dug into the ground and covered in camouflage. Inside this command centre, officers monitor two screens. One shows radar images of the skies above the front line and some 50km into Russian-held territory. The other shows a half-dozen live feeds from Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

“This used to be an old Soviet radio station, but we have gutted it and installed this equipment given to us by volunteers. We did it all ourselves,” Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Timchenko, commander of the air-defence unit, says proudly. Plots on the monitor show the flight paths of Russian jets, helicopters and missiles. Lines showing Smerch rockets travelling at 1,400kph (900mph) criss-cross the screen; one heads directly towards the hamlet, but passes overhead. A Russian warplane comes close to the front, releases its bomb and makes a u-turn. Less than a minute later the glide bomb (a regular bomb fitted with fins to greatly increase its range) disappears from the screen, exploding well inside Ukraine.
Colonel Timchenko’s air-defence unit cannot hit the Russian planes and has no way of intercepting glide bombs. Its job is to warn artillery units and mobile groups operating along the front. Hidden in the brush on a hill a few kilometres from the hamlet, three of the battalion’s 250 men huddle around a Strela-10, an old Soviet short-range mobile surface-to-air missile system. Designed to bring down nato planes, it now hunts Russian drones. In the eight months that Colonel Timchenko has been here his men have shot down 50.

Tall and composed, the commander is a Russian-speaker from Kharkiv. He has been fighting since February 2015, a year after Vladimir Putin first invaded Crimea and the eastern Donbas, supposedly to “save” Russian-speakers like him. The war, he says, is not about language, ethnicity or even territory, but a way of life. “I don’t want to be part of Russia. I don’t want to go to prison for expressing my opinions. I want my children to grow up in a normal country, maybe not a rich country, but a free country.” An avid reader of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, he does not want to live in a new “Gulag Archipelago”.
The purpose of the fighting around Chasiv Yar is not to retain every inch of land, but to prevent the Russian army from sweeping across the rest of Ukraine and taking its main cities, including Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa and Kyiv. Similarly, Mr Putin is not interested in the Donbas for its territory; he is trying to subjugate Ukraine and end its quest to become part of the European order. Last week Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, told The Economist that this order could perish “much more quickly than we think”. Ukraine is where the fight is taking place.

A year ago, as Ukraine readied for its counter-offensive, just holding its own positions was considered the most pessimistic scenario. Now, as Russia prepares for a fresh push, it is considered the best case. From soldiers to generals, everyone The Economist spoke to over the past week knows that Ukraine lacks the resources to get back to its 1991 borders, as its politicians have promised. “I suggest to anyone who talks of 1991 borders to come as far as Bakhmut,” Colonel Timchenko says, referring to a town Ukraine lost a year ago after months of savage fighting.
At stake now is not Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but its survival. Slowing Russian forces in the Donbas is crucial. Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, commander of the 92nd, who helped liberate Kharkiv province in September 2022, is now fighting some 350km south-east of the city. “Everyone knows that if we don’t fight for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka [Russia’s probable next target], Russian forces will be in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih a few weeks later,” he says. He thinks there is a “70% chance” that Russia can occupy the rest of the Donbas region. The question is how long it might take, and how much damage Ukraine can inflict in the process.

Colonel Fedosenko says he was down to five shells a day for his American Paladin howitzers. “What am I supposed to do with this number of shells? My men were fighting with spades in trenches.” He hopes the $61bn package’s effects will be felt in days, as many of the weapons have been pre-positioned in Poland.
Although Russia has the edge in shells and manpower, Colonel Fedosenko feels it may have reached its peak. Only a few weeks ago, he says, Russian infantry backed by ten to 20 armoured vehicles and tanks were launching assaults every two to three hours. Now they attack only every five days or so, using motorcycles and quad bikes to avoid kicking up dust and advancing in small groups to hunt for weak spots.

Some 70% of the Russian soldiers in such assaults are former convicts, says Colonel Fedosenko. He also sees Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen, Cuban and Somali mercenaries. Many soldiers have never been in combat before. “Our interceptions suggest they are scraping the barrel, using whoever they can force into battle—cooks, builders, mechanics, anyone.” He knows that many Russian soldiers have no choice. “Most of the prisoners I take are guys from small towns and villages. They tell us that either they get killed here or they get killed there if they run.” Some shoot themselves rather than surrender.

With around 50,000 fresh Russian troops gathering across the border some 40km away, Kharkiv’s commanders know they may be a target in Russia’s next push. One scenario would be to isolate the city by cutting the main road to Kyiv. Another would be to move some 10km closer, putting the city’s eastern outskirts within artillery range and creating a buffer zone to protect Belgorod, a Russian city that is being hit by Ukrainian drones.
Konstantin Nemichev is the commander of the famous Kraken regiment, a special-forces outfit formed in the early days of the invasion in 2022 that defended Kharkiv. He expects the enemy to attack the province again in mid-May, but reckons they will fail to get near the city. Interviewed outside a ruined school building in the east of town, the site of an intense firefight in 2022 in which invading soldiers were wiped out, the commander says the defence is much stronger now. It has three lines of fortifications and a full brigade to stop the Russians. “They can move a few kilometres into the province,” he says, “but I don’t think they can get as far as 10km.”
The Ukrainian armed forces know they have no choice but to fight on. “We can either fight for Ukraine against Russia, or we will be overrun and forced to fight for Russia against Europe,” says Oleg Tkach, a lieutenant colonel in the 3rd tank brigade, which defends the Kharkiv region. But this sense of urgency and existential threat, he says, needs to penetrate into the whole of Ukrainian society. “People need to know the truth,” he says. And Ukraine needs unity as it enters a new stage of conflict.

So far this war, the biggest in Europe since 1945, has been extremely localised. For most of the country it almost seems a distant reality. But as Russia presses again, it will knock on everyone’s door. Anyone who wished to fight for Ukraine has already enlisted. Now conscription is cranking up. Any man between 25 and 60 who lives in Ukraine knows it could be his turn next. On May 8th parliament passed a law allowing some convicts to enlist and have their sentences erased (though unlike in Russia, murderers and other serious criminals are not eligible). Pressure is building on Ukrainian men who have fled the draft to return. “If they don’t come back, they may not have a country to come back to,” says Colonel Timchenko in his dugout near Kostiantynivka, as he studies the screens showing waves of incoming Smerch rockets.

Don't Toews Me · Friday at 10:02 AM

Ukraine says it repelled Russian bid to cross border

The attempt came during an attack on a town in the northeastern Kharkiv region, says the military.

www.bbc.com

Ukraine says it has repelled a Russian armoured attack in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, after Moscow's forces launched an incursion across the border and sought to break through defensive lines.

Kharkiv regional head Oleh Syniehubov said Russian reconnaissance groups had tried to penetrate the border, adding that "not a single metre has been lost".

"Russia has launched a new wave of counteroffensive operations in the Kharkiv sector," said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Ukrainian commanders have been expecting a summer offensive for some time, possibly even a bid to capture the regional capital Kharkiv. But officials are adamant Russia does not have the resources to do so.

Russia had the capability to aggravate the situation in border areas but not the ability to capture Ukraine's second city, said the head of Ukraine's centre for countering disinformation, Andriy Kovalenko.

Ukrainian reports suggested Russia was trying to create a 10km buffer zone for its Belgorod region, after a series of Ukrainian cross-border attacks.

Friday's small incursions over the Russian border form a familiar yet disturbing axis for Ukrainian forces.

The defence ministry in Kyiv said the attack started with the heavy bombing of the town of Vovchansk "using guided aerial bombs" with the support of artillery. Then, small Russian “scouting groups” moved in across the border, reportedly in several places.

The local head in Vovchansk, 75km (45 miles) north-east of Kharkiv, said the town had come under heavy attack from the early hours of Friday and civilians were being evacuated. Some 3,000 people live in Vovchansk and at least one person was killed and five more injured in the barrage, according to Kharkiv's regional leader.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1788914066125168687

Following the MoD’s report, Zelenskyy said that “Russia has begun a new wave of counteroffensive actions in” across the border in Kharkiv Oblast. He noted that Russia could introduce more forces in this area, adding that a “fierce battle” is ongoing. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne cited Ukrainian military sources who believe Russia aims to establish a 10-km buffer zone along the border.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1788920550414283067

The intensity of Russian attacks along the front has increased markedly in the past hours - the (largely unsuccessful) incursion into Kharkiv Oblast is just one example. The majority of recently promised Western military assistance has still has not arrived.

Don't Toews Me · Friday at 10:16 AM

https://twitter.com/HoansSolo/status/1788911297301463249

If operation is confirmed the main question is not so much whether Russia has the forces to take Kharkiv. The more important question is how many Ukrainian troops who are desperately needed elsewhere on the frontline operations around Kharkiv will tie down & for how long.

Reserves sent to Kharkiv Oblast where Russians attempted to break through, Ukraineâs Defence Ministry says

Ukraineâs Ministry of Defence has reported that reserve units have been sent to the north of Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defences on the morning of 10 May.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine's Ministry of Defence has reported that reserve units have been sent to the north of Kharkiv Oblast, where Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defences on the morning of 10 May.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1788911108041937399

The Kharkiv operation that our team has been forecasting began this morning at 0500 in Ukraine with what is either reconnaissance in force or badly conducted combined arms attacks. Russian forces are operating with tube & rocket artillery support, mortars, & KAB bomb air support.
Russia focused on the Vovchansk direction (with KAB support) and also near Borisivka, Pylna, Krasne, and Hoptivka and Strelecha. https://t.me/ministry_of_defense_ua/9466; https://t.me/mysiagin/28494 ; https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19445

Crudely speaking, the areas in red.

Russian forces advance 1 kilometer into Kharkiv region — Kyiv source – DW – 05/10/2024

p.dw.com

Russian forces have advanced 1 kilometer (about 0.6 miles) into the northeastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine near Vovchansk, according to a high-ranking Ukrainian military source.

The source said the Russian military was aiming to advance as much as 10 kilometers into the region on Friday in an effort to establish a buffer zone. The source told the Reuters news agency that Ukrainian forces were fighting to hold back Moscow's advance.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry earlier said Russian forces tried to break through the border into Kharkiv, employing armored vehicles and heavy shelling in what is being seen as a possible bid to open a new front in its war on its neighbor.

"At approximately 5 a.m., there was an attempt by the enemy to break through our defensive line under the cover of armored vehicles," the ministry said.

Kyiv says it has sent reinforcements, but fighting is still raging in the border area.

Russia has also stepped up shelling the region. A local official in the town of Vovchansk said evacuations were ongoing due to intensified Russian shelling.

The reported incursion comes amid a recent buildup of Russian troops near the Kharkiv region, which borders Russia, that could herald an impending attack away from Moscow's previous focus on the Donetsk area.

Reportedly attacked with 4-5 infantry battalions (others disagree on the size of the advance, this number cited here appears to be much higher than the quoted numbers seen elsewhere. Would wait for more info before jumping to conclusions): https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1788928593281573155

Ukrainian war correspondent Yuriy Butusov said Russian forces have captured Strilecha, Krasne, Pyl’na, Borysivka and achieving minor gains in the Vovchans’k district [probably at Pletenivka]. In other areas, Russian attacks were repulsed, and Ukraine has stopped Russia’s advances for now, he said. (Maps courtesy of Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState.)

Butusov noted that the towns immediately across the border were already in the gray zone, so Ukraine couldn’t establish a defensive line there. He says this allowed Russia to advance 5 km deep x 10 km wide fairly easily, but he asked why Russia was able to capture an area this size so quickly with just infantry. He noted that Ukrainian forces in the area are outnumbered and their tactical reserves tend to remain relatively far from the zero line due to Russia’s advantages in recon UAVs, artillery, and aviation. He said Ukraine’s defense of the Strilecha area was poorly organized.

According to Butusov, Russia attacked at night with 4-5 infantry battalions. [If true, this is by far the largest-scale attack Russia has attempted in quite some time.] He said Russian armored vehicles brought the troops to the border but initially didn’t enter Ukrainian territory, although he thinks they now will. [DeepState already showed a few destroyed vehicles SW of Pyl’na.] He said the Russians are advancing slowly in small, platoon-sized groups of infantry, conducting reconnaissance in force, and have achieved a bridgehead for the further attacks. But he notes that Russia has not arrayed enough forces for a large-scale offensive on Kharkiv itself, while Ukraine has concentrated “significant forces” for the city’s defense.

Video: https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1788931731203985505

Footage of destruction along Soborna Street in Vovchans’k, #Kharkiv Oblast, following an intense barrage of bomb strikes and tube & rocket artillery fire last night. The area near Vovchans’k is reportedly one of the directions in which Russian forces are currently attacking as part of the offensive launched last night.

Media claim Russia captures 4 border villages in Kharkiv Oblast, governor says no ground lost

In turn, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on national television on national television that no territory was lost at the moment. He clarified that settlements in the border areas are a "grey zone" and that active hostilities are ongoing there.

kyivindependent.com

Russian forces allegedly captured four border villages in Kharkiv Oblast as they seek to push toward the town of Vovchansk, Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 10, citing military sources.

In turn, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov said on national television that no territory was lost at the moment. He clarified that settlements in the border areas are a "grey zone" and that active hostilities are ongoing there.

Early on May 10, Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces launched an attempt to break through in Kharkiv Oblast. President Volodymyr Zelensky later confirmed that Russia was carrying out a new offensive in the area.

According to the Ukrainska Pravda's sources, the villages in question are Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka. This advance may be a part of a diversionary maneuver, the sources said.

Syniehubov confirmed that Russian forces are seeking to advance in the Vovchansk direction, namely in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Vovchansk is situated about 50 kilometers (35 miles) northeast of Kharkiv and just 5 kilometers (3 miles) from the border with Russia.

"Our brigades met the enemy with live fire. All attacks were repelled. No territory was lost at this time," Syniehubov said on air.

"Those border settlements are located one to two kilometers from the Russian border. There are active hostilities ongoing there."

Reuters reported earlier on May 10 that, according to an undisclosed military official, Russian forces had pushed one kilometer (0.6 miles) inside the border near Vovchansk.

Don't Toews Me · Friday at 10:29 AM

Thread: https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1788922406649696613

Ukrainian officials say attacks on border areas in Kharkiv Oblast have begun. Is this the beginnings of a new front, limited incursion ("sanitary zone"), or harassment? Where does this lead? Threat= capability x intent, so let's consider both below.

Intent: Putin in March said he wanted a "sanitary zone" aka occupied buffer zone inside Kharkiv, in response to shelling or cross border raids from groups like RDK. /2
Intent: a few weeks ago, the MOD elevated the Russian group of forces from “Border Protection” to Operational Group North – making it equivalent to the other Operational Groups of Forces. /3
Within the last week, Gen Lapin was appointed the newly formed Operational Group North. (Lapin commanded the initial Group Center in the 2022 invasion) /4
Ukrainian officials have been anticipating an attack on Kharkiv/Sumy for some time. /5
Capability: I've said previously that for Russia to invade the entire oblast, I think 75,000-100,000 personnel is ballpark and vehicles , which isn't in their grasp right now, nor do they have means to occupy a large city like Kharkiv. /5
What is required to establish a sanitary zone of ~30KM across Kharkiv oblast? For personnel requirements close to the border I would estimate around two combined arms armies worth, perhaps 30,000-40,000 personnel over time and associated armored vehicles. /6
Early reports (take with grain of salt) say the Air Force and UAVs are working first with infantry assaults. Operationally appropriate early phase decision, or lack of available armor? to be determined. /7
Next few days, important to watch for increased VKS/UAV/FPV activity to map out and engage UAF defenses, continued shelling. In a worst case scenario, it creates favorable conditions for armored vehicle commitment. /8
Or, Russia is light on equipment for this effort, and attacks with infantry and light vehicles. Either way, if they attack Kharkiv, it draws Russia's reserves that otherwise could have been secondary reserves for their main objective, Donetsk, or elsewhere. /9
Where would these Russian forces come from? As far as I can tell, there haven't been major reallocations from forces in occupied Ukraine, which implies this group would be created from reserves (inexperienced) or units that were withdrawn/regenerating (mixed) /10.
To know Russia’s goals here, it is key to locate units and resources allocated in border areas in Russia: where and how many are staged- or if there are not enough staged. Either way, Ukrainian forces are now being stretched a bit to cope with this at a difficult time./end

Video: https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1788936179158589755

Video of Russian MLRS fire reportedly launched in Belgorod Oblast, which borders Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. The videos were posted at around 4-4:30 AM local time today.

Russia attacks Ukraine's Kharkiv region in new ground offensive

Russia is looking to create a 'sanitary zone' between Kharkiv in Ukraine and Belgorod in Russia, a region frequently targeted by Ukrainian shelling.

www.lemonde.fr

A high-ranking Ukrainian military source said Russia had advanced into Ukraine by one kilometer, and was trying to "create a buffer zone" to prevent attacks into Russian territory. If Russia's advances are confirmed, it would represent the Kremlin's biggest land operation in the region since it sent thousands of troops across the border in February 2022.

The attack was launched around 5:00 am, with Russia trying to break through Ukraine's lines under the cover of armored vehicles, the Ukrainian defense ministry said. The Russian defense ministry has not provided any comment but Russian military bloggers reported active fighting in the area.

A local official said there was "massive shelling" in Vovchansk, a town of about 3,000 some five kilometers from the Russian border, and that evacuations were underway there and in nearby areas.

Don't Toews Me · Friday at 10:38 AM

Austin Says North Korea Helped Russia 'Get Back Up on Its Feet'

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III told lawmakers that North Korea helped Russia regain momentum against Ukraine by supplying weapons.

www.airandspaceforces.com

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III told lawmakers North Korea’s weapon supply bolstered Russia in its war with Ukraine, part of a broader coalition that has aided Moscow’s efforts including Iran and China.

“We saw Russia engage North Korea, who provided quite a bit of munitions and missiles, and the drones provided by Iran really helped to begin turning the tide there for Russia a bit, and allowed them to get back up on their feet, in addition to them increasing their production in their industrial base,” Austin told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee on May 8.

The White House reported that North Korean-produced ballistic missiles were fired into Ukraine from Russia in January. The following month, it disclosed that since September 2023, North Korea had delivered more than 10,000 containers of munitions to Russia. Experts have noted that arms sales likely began in 2022 during the initial stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Without the help from Iran, North Korea, and China, this probably would not have occurred to the degree that it has occurred,” Austin said, referring to the current scale of the prolonged war.

Thread: https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1788820945127313507

Is recent push to choke off supplies of dual-use goods to having an effect? It looks like it, according to the newest Chinese customs data. But I'm not holding my breath: over the last 2+ years Beijing and Moscow have found ways to adapt to U.S. sanctions. Short
2/ Newest customs statistics is out, and it shows that Beijing's exports to Russia continue to decline for a second month. April shipments to are $8.3b, down 13.7% compared to April 2023. This is bigger than yoy exports drop to (-2.8%) or (-3.6%). http://customs.gov.cn/customs/302249/zfxxgk/2799825/302274/302275/5862614/index.html
3/ Russian exports to China are growing ($11.5b in April), but the drop of imports is significant and it builds on nearly 16% drop in March - the first such decline of exports to since summer 2022.
4/ It's unlikely that the Russian market has reached a saturation point for Chinese imports, and Chinese New Year impact is unlikely to last for two months. Which leaves us with the most likely explanation: the U.S. pressure tactics is working on Beijing. At least on the surface.
5/ Following December executive order, @POTUS has dispatched @SecYellen & @SecBlinken to Beijing to lay out likely consequences for banking sector should China continue helping Russia to refurbish its military industry.
6/ The chilling effect of U.S. moves to curb shipment of dual-use goods to Russia is palpable not only in China, but also among Moscow's other major trade partners, as documented in this excellent @FT piece by @maxseddon, @xtophercook, @NastyaStognei.
7/ Chinese leadership will now have a story to tell to & interlocuters, and will present Beijing as not deaf to Western concerns when it comes to exports of critical components to Putin's war machine. But how genuine and durable is this?
8/ First, Chinese exports of dual-use goods can go through third countries, particularly those in Central Asia. Or bank transactions can include shell companies in these jurisdictions to muddy the water for piercing eyes of @USTreasury.
9/ More importantly, time and again over the last 2 years we've seen how Moscow and Beijing take time to absorb the initial shock from the new U.S. sanctions, but then find ways to adapt. I expect sanctions circumvention to be one of the major topics at Putin-Xi summit next week.
10/ Truth is that for a number of reasons Putin's regime is too important for Xi to throw it under the bus. @WhiteHouse can be content with its recent success, but full withdrawal of clandestine help to is unlikely. More context in @ForeignAffairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/putin-and-xis-unholy-alliance

Ukraine to get its first F-16 jets in June-July, says Kyiv military source

Kyiv expects to receive its first F-16 fighter jets from its Western allies in June-July, a high-ranking Ukrainian military source said on Friday.
Ukraine has sought U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets to help it counter Russia's air superiority for more than two years of war. The source did not say which country would supply the jets.
So far, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway and Belgium have committed to sending F-16s to Ukraine.
Illya Yevlash, spokesperson for the air force, said this week that some Ukrainian pilots were completing their training to fly the warplanes.
The pilots and ground staff have been trained by Ukraine's Western partners for months.
The Ukrainian military has had to rely on a relatively small fleet of Soviet-era jets as it has fought to hold back Russia's full-scale February 2022 invasion.
With Russian forces slowly advancing in the eastern Donbas region and mounting a fresh assault in the northeast near the city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian officials see the addition of the F-16 as a vital upgrade for its Air Force.

Ukraine's Air Force receives first F-16 fighter jet trainer – video

Czechia has handed over the first F-16 fighter jet simulator to one of Ukraine’s tactical aviation brigades, and its main module is being tested and prepared for operation by Ukrainian engineers.

Source: Commander of the Ukrainian Air Force Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk on Telegram; press service for Air Force Command

Quote: "I thank everyone who is helping Ukraine strengthen its aircraft component. Of course, in addition to the F-16s themselves, we need to create a strong supply of training equipment for our youth. I urge our allies to join this initiative."

Details: The Air Force explains that this is not a simulator, but a full-fledged flight simulator with a real F-16 cockpit.

Hydraulics will be installed next, so that the pilot will get the most realistic experience during training flights.

Don't Toews Me · Saturday at 1:22 PM

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1789003710703542554

Agree with @Tatarigami_UA's assessment. The scope of this operation isn't fully clear yet (we may see advances or diversions near Sumy as well), but Russia likely seeks to draw Ukrainian reserves and units away from the Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar fronts to set conditions for a deeper advance into Donetsk Oblast. The problem remains that Ukraine does not have enough manpower/forces available. This operation likely seeks to stretch Ukraine's forces further.

Kharkiv governor: Heavy fighting ongoing but no threat of ground invasion of city

Speaking to journalists, Oleh Syniehubov said the situation was "fully controlled." Syniehubov claimed fighting was ongoing in four of the five villages claimed by Moscow – Strilecha, Pylna, Borysivka, and Ohirtseve.

kyivindependent.com

Heavy fighting continues in Kharkiv Oblast near the border with Russia but there is no threat of a ground invasion of the city itself, the oblast's Governor said on May 11.

Zelensky: Ukraine defends in northern Kharkiv Oblast, 'extremely difficult' situation in Donetsk Oblast

Battles are ongoing around the settlements of Strilecha, Krasne, Morokhovets, Oliinykove, Lukiantsi, Hatyshche, and Pletenivka, Zelensky said.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine's military said that Moscow's troops had been contained in the "gray zone" border villages, while Russia alleged the capture of five local settlements: Pletenivka, Ohirtseve, Borysivka, Pylne, and Strilecha.

The situation is also reportedly "particularly tense" in Donetsk Oblast, namely in the Pokrovsk direction near the villages of Semenivka and Netailove.

"There are more than 30 clashes daily, it is extremely difficult," Zelensky said.

Ukrainian forces continue to defend in other directions of Donetsk Oblast, namely around Kupiansk, Lyman, Siversk, Kramatorsk, and Vermivka.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1789322313734770699

A Ukrainian officer said forces from Ukraine’s 92nd Assault Brigade, 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade, Kraken, and tankers from an unspecified unit (probably 3rd Tank Brigade) are defending in northern Kharkiv Oblast. As far as I’m aware, the 92nd & 57th were defending in the Chasiv Yar & Kupyansk directions, respectively. If Russia’s offensive has forced Ukraine to divert them to Kharkiv, that’s significant.

The officer acknowledged that Russia has taken areas along the border that were already in the gray zone as well as some that some Ukrainian-controlled villages. He accused some Ukrainian units of abandoning their positions and said the Ukrainian high command dismissed “leaders responsible for the Kharkov direction.” But he says the situation has stabilized.

He notes that Russia is pounding Vovchansk with guided aerial bombs (KABs).

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1789283516309536955

The situation in Kharkiv Oblast is under control of the Defense Forces. Certain units abandoned their positions, which allowed Russians to capture a few settlements. Thanks to 57th Motorized, 92nd Assault Brigades and Kraken, the situation was stabilized.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1789289560179978699

57th Motorized is near Kupyansk, they likely dispatched the reserve battalion. 92nd's base is in Chuhuiv, and I'm sure there's always at least one battalion present at the base, same with Kraken and Kharkiv.

Video: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1789254144949129458

The city of Vovchansk has come under fire as Russia intensifies its bombardment in and around Kharkiv.

Sky's @haynesdeborah reports from Ukraine as explosions are heard and buildings destroyed.

https://twitter.com/JohnH105/status/1789325867379728766

Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState reports that Russia has transferred unspecified mechanized infantry units to Bakhmut and will likely soon bring them into battle in the Chasiv Yar area.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1789295077421994078

Bars Kaskad is a special military unit of Russian Armed Forces which specialises in UAV operations.

An unusually high number of United Russia party members and sons of Kremlin VIPs are part of Bars Kaskad.

Don't Toews Me · Saturday at 1:45 PM

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/11/europe/ukraine-kharkiv-russia-attack-intl/index.html

The northern border assault follows the creation of a new Russian military grouping called Sever [North]. George Barros at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington told CNN that Sever is an “operationally significant group.”

“Russia sought to generate 60,000-100,000 troops for its group to attack Kharkiv and we assess it’s closer to 50,000,” Barros says, but “it still has a lot of combat power.”

It’s from this new force that units of armored infantry tried to cross the border. The available evidence suggests they were expected and suffered significant losses. But if more elite units join (there are reports that elements from other divisions may do so) Russia’s ambitions could grow.

As a Ukrainian special forces unit told CNN this weekend, “This is only the beginning, the Russians have a bridgehead for further offensives.”

One former Ukrainian officer who writes about the conflict on the blog Frontelligence says that “Manpower shortages compel Ukraine to avoid deploying large units along the border continuously, with fully stocked and ready for immediate-use artillery.”

He expects the situation to evolve, “with Russian forces deploying more units to penetrate additional border areas or to reinforce initial successes.”

Several analysts expect the Russians to broaden the border attacks westwards to Sumy region, which has seen months of raids by Russian special forces.

The Sever grouping could not attack and occupy a city the size of Kharkiv, but that’s likely not the goal. Barros says that it is instead to compel Ukrainian forces to pivot from Donetsk to Kharkiv region. The Russians seek to “thin Ukrainian forces out along the 600-mile frontline and create opportunities, specifically in Donetsk oblast, which is Russia’s main operational objective for 2024,” Barros says.

The latest cross-border assaults may also divert Ukrainian units from the defense of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv region, where a Russian assault has stalled for months, as well as create a buffer zone inside Ukraine that the Kremlin says it wants to reduce attacks on Russian cities like Belgorod.

Western analysts believe that in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk, for example, the Ukrainians may be outnumbered by 10:1, as well as suffering a chronic imbalance in shells and a complete lack of air cover. One Ukrainian military blogger this week estimated that elements of as many as 15 Russian motorized rifle brigades (each of which would have up to 1,000 men) were operating in the Chasiv Yar direction alone.

Lose the high ground around Chasiv Yar and an important belt of industrial towns and cities: Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and Kostyantinyvka, becomes much more vulnerable.

Skibitsky told the Economist that losing Chasiv Yar was a distinct possibility - “not today or tomorrow, of course, but all depending on our reserves and supplies.”

North-east of Chasiv Yar, a soldier called Stanislav told Ukrainian television this week that after a month of “very active hostilities” the Russians “are advancing from the direction of Kreminna, where they are accumulating great reserves.”

“Huge numbers of Russian infantry are attacking day and night, in large and small groups,” the soldier said.

EDF colonel: Russia may be preparing major attack in northern Ukraine

Russia has increased its number of troops in the north of Ukraine, which may indicate plans to launch a major offensive in that area, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

news.err.ee

Col. Kiviselg also said that the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnipro River, which was established by the Ukrainian Armed Forces remains in place. However, Russia has been seen to be massing additional units to crush the bridgehead in Krynki. "So, in the coming weeks, fighting there may intensify," he noted.

Don't Toews Me · Saturday at 2:21 PM

Russia launches assault on Kharkiv region in north-eastern Ukraine

Moscow uses superior weaponry and manpower in attempt to make gains before arrival of more US military aid

www.ft.com

A Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times on Wednesday that Russia was preparing for offensives along the north-eastern frontline in order to draw Ukrainian forces away from Donetsk where, heavily outgunned and outmanned, they are struggling to hold their defensive lines. Parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas, have been occupied since 2014.

‘It was silent … then it was hell’ — in the path of Russia’s move on Kharkiv

A fierce battle is under way for Ukraine’s second city as Moscow launches the biggest ground assault on the region for two years. Soldiers caught up in the fighting tell their story

www.thetimes.co.uk

The soldiers had spent almost a fortnight digging trenches day and night to deter Russian forces from crossing the border north of Kharkiv, but at about two o’clock on Friday morning the enemy came crashing through. Russia’s new assault on Ukraine’s second city had begun.
“It was silent at first, and then it was hell,” said platoon commander Nikita a few hours later, speaking from his mother’s home in Kharkiv. “We held the artillery. That’s it. We stood watching it all.”
For the next 12 hours, he and his platoon tried to ward off Russian attacks, which came from multiple directions in the form of drones, artillery, tanks and infantrymen.
The hardest part of the battle was the first six hours as enemy forces moved through a border that had remained intact for over a year. “We detained, repelled in full, and we inflicted a very big blow on them,” Nikita said. “We had no wounded or killed.”
Leo, a soldier from the same brigade stationed at another point, watched the Russians as they infiltrated Ukrainian positions. His own section came under fire at 11.30am on Friday in a battle that lasted 15 to 20 minutes. They all got out alive, he said.
“But I saw other soldiers who were dead,” he added. “The Russians went into the trenches.”
The rest of the day passed in a blur as the Ukrainians fought to stop enemy soldiers from occupying villages around the border. At one point, while evacuating civilians, Leo made eye contact with an elderly woman whose face was filled with fear and hopelessness. “I felt sad for her,” he said.

Russia said on Saturday that its forces had captured five villages — Pletenivka, Ohirtseve, Borysivka, Pylna and Strilechna — which lie in the “grey zone” along the Ukrainian border, which, at its closest, is less than 30 miles from Kharkiv.
The Ukrainian military, which rushed reinforcements to the Kharkiv region on Friday, said the Russian advance had been halted. “The enemy is localised in the ‘grey zone’, it is not expanding,” said Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern command. “However, there is the question of finally destroying it and catching it in the tree lines where it could hide.”

The mood in Kharkiv itself was fearful, with a number of aerial bombs landing in the north. “A lot of people have already moved out,” said Sergey, a resident of the city who used to work as an estate agent. Some had gone to Dnipro or Poltava; others further afield to Kyiv.
Sergey has helped to find temporary accommodation for Nikita, Leo and several other soldiers involved in the fighting. When he met them they were fresh from battle, still covered in dirt, blood and their own waste. All preferred not to state their full names or units, to preserve their anonymity.
Nikita and another soldier, Pavlo, who said he had spent 13 days digging trenches, were adamant that Russia would not take Kharkiv and would never win the war.
Leo, who joined the army shortly after the invasion and has spent the past two years moving through various frontline positions, is not sure.
“If the nation was united, we would have won already. Our nation, all people [are] too fragmented,” he said. Asked if his country could hope for eventual victory, he paused and slowly exhaled before replying: “No.”

Don't Toews Me · Sunday at 10:45 AM

Military briefing: Russia’s Kharkiv offensive draws Ukrainian troops away from east

Russian forces capture a dozen villages but fail to breach Ukraine’s defensive lines

www.ft.com

Russian forces pushed further into the Kharkiv region in north-eastern Ukraine over the weekend, in a move that analysts said was more likely to be aimed at drawing Ukrainian units away from the eastern frontline than a bid to take the country’s second-largest city.
Russian troops attacked in two directions, seizing several villages in the Liptsi district, 30km north of Kharkiv city, and reaching the outskirts of the town of Vovchansk, 40km further east, according to Deepstate, an open-source intelligence group, which cited geolocated imagery from the area.
Without the deployment of more Ukrainian reserves the situation would become “extremely dire”, Deepstate warned.
Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Sunday the situation in Kharkiv had “significantly worsened” and that his forces had fought off nine attacks around eight of the contested settlements in the region. He did not confirm the loss of any territory, saying that his forces were “doing everything to maintain the defensive borders and positions”.

The amount of Russian forces deployed to the Kharkiv offensive — two army corps or roughly 35,000 — was not enough to attempt the capture of Kharkiv city, officials and analysts said. And, so far, the attacks have been small-scale.
“The Russian forces in the area did not form a cohesive mechanised force for a deep strike with concentrated strength to have an overwhelming superiority in personnel and equipment,” said Frontelligence Insight, an analytical group run by a former Ukrainian officer.
“Instead, they employed multiple small-scale attacks at various border points using platoon-sized and even squad-sized units, allowing some of them to infiltrate the border without encountering significant resistance.”
Russia’s new Kharkiv offensive had probably already achieved “partial success” in drawing Ukrainian troops away from defensive positions elsewhere on the frontline, Frontelligence added, although it declined to name the units that had been redeployed. Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold to defensive positions in Donetsk, part of the Donbas, which remains the focal point of Russia’s war efforts.

Another possible objective for Moscow’s new offensive is to move its forces within artillery range of the city of Kharkiv. Before Russian forces were pushed back from the area in the autumn of 2022, they were able to constantly shell Kharkiv, terrorising the population and flattening many of the buildings in the city’s north-eastern districts.
To do so, Russian forces would need to break through Ukraine’s main defensive lines and advance much further into Ukrainian territory, but it was unclear whether they would be able to build momentum, analysts said.
The villages captured since Friday lie in what Ukrainian officials call a “grey zone” between the Russian border and Ukraine’s main defensive line.
Serhiy Kuzan, chair of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, a think-tank, said neither side wanted to hold positions in the area because of the disadvantageous lowland terrain.
Kuzan said that while Russia had entered the previously empty grey zone area on Friday, Ukraine’s forces were holding a pre-prepared line along natural barriers.
“This entry is what caused the panic that they have advanced a few kilometres but there is no reason to panic. They would like to break the front and repeat what we did in 2022 [Ukraine’s lightning counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region] but they failed and now they are stuck,” said Kuzan.
He said the Russian troops did not have the forces to advance much further but they had enough reserves to continue fighting in the area for at least a month with the aim of getting as close to Kharkiv city as possible “to create pressure there” by shelling the city.

Pro-Kremlin military bloggers concurred that Moscow’s main gains were in the grey zone, saying Russians should not expect a quick breakthrough and that much would depend on the arrival of US aid.
Writing in the pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda on Saturday, Russian war reporter Alexander Kots said many of the key routes Russia would want to take have been carpeted with landmines and said Ukrainian drone use against Russian forces was “not to be discounted”.
“The enemy has not built serious defensive lines [in the grey zone]; they are waiting for us ahead,” Kots wrote. “And in 2024, Kyiv has more ability to resist the advancing forces.”

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1789643826153259354

The GUR was aware of Russia’s plans to attack Kharkiv Oblast, representative of GUR Andrii Yusov said.

"The actions of the enemy in this direction began according to the schedule that was known, about which all authorities, management and command were informed by the Main Directorate of Intelligence. Necessary measures are being taken."

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1789634346439110877

Situation in Vovchansk is difficult, Russians entered the city. Street fighting has begun. 1st Rifle Battalion of 57th Brigade managed to stop further Russian advance for now. The first line of fortifications and mine fields didn't exist in this area.

N. Korea says to deploy new multiple rocket launcher starting this year | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, May 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Saturday it will deploy a new 240mm multiple ro...

en.yna.co.kr

Observers said North Korea appears to be ramping up the development of rocket launcher shells in a bid to supply them to Russia for use in Moscow's war with Ukraine and double down on weapons tests targeting South Korea.

NIS looking into N. Korea's suspected provision of weapons to Russia | Yonhap News Agency

SEOUL, May 12 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's spy agency said Sunday it is looking into sus...

en.yna.co.kr

South Korea's spy agency said Sunday it is looking into suspicions that North Korean weapons made in the 1970s have been supplied to Russia for its war in Ukraine amid deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.

The remark by the National Intelligence Service (NIS) came in response to a recent report by a local media outlet that 122 mm artillery shells manufactured in the North in the 1970s appeared to be among weapons that Russia used in its ongoing war against Kyiv.

"The NIS is analyzing the relevant circumstance in detail and also continues to track overall military cooperation between North Korea and Russia," the spy agency said.

Photos released by a Ukrainian photographer last year showed that Korean letters, including the word "방-122," were found inscribed on rocket shells. Experts said they were likely 122 mm multiple rocket launcher shells.

South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik has also estimated the North to have shipped around 6,700 containers to Russia since a summit between their leaders in September, which are enough to accommodate approximately 3 million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells or 500,000 rounds of 122 mm artillery shells.

The NIS also said it is closely monitoring the possibility of illicit shipment of missile parts to North Korea amid concerns it may be procuring such parts to develop new weapons.

Chadstroma · Sunday at 5:44 PM

I believe the first F-16's are to be delivered within a few weeks. Though the US has downplayed them cautioning that they will not turn the tide and specially at the numbers that they will get, I think that this is very significant.

Ukraine's aircraft currently, as I think everyone knows, is old Soviet made aircraft. It isn't just that the F-16 is a better aircraft than their current SU-27 and MiG-29's but even more importantly that it really frees up the flow of armaments. Currently they have been jerryrigging their aircraft to be able to use western missiles, eletronic warfare pods or basically anything. I read somewhere that they use iPads as fire control. That clearly is not efficient for either the pilot or the ground crew.

The F-16's should be much better at one thing in particular that I think is going to be crucial. Wild Weasel actions. Supplied with F-16's and HARMs, the Ukrainians can either force the Russian anti-air to go dark or risk losing those assets. It is a very risky assignment but something that if used correctly will either bleed the Russian air defense or allow for more use of offensive air operations.

themeistersinger · Sunday at 6:32 PM

In Major Shakeup, Putin Replaces Defense Minister Shoigu - The Moscow Times

In a major shakeup, President Vladimir Putin has nominated former First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov to replace longtime Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, the upper-house Federation Council announced Sunday night.

www.themoscowtimes.com

nightmare · Sunday at 6:34 PM

My minimal understanding of air combat is this. You need multiple types of aircraft in a fight to attack and defend.
An AWACS or equivalent for instant communication, a fighter for air to air defense, a fighter for air to ground defense,
and a ground attack aircraft. The old A10 Warthog could be good for air to ground but would get quickly defeated without
some other support craft.

The F-16 seems like a good multi role fighter for this but is there enough of them to attack specific targets and not just
defend ground.

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Chadstroma · 2024-05-13T00:18:30-0400

nightmare said:
My minimal understanding of air combat is this. You need multiple types of aircraft in a fight to attack and defend.
An AWACS or equivalent for instant communication, a fighter for air to air defense, a fighter for air to ground defense,
and a ground attack aircraft. The old A10 Warthog could be good for air to ground but would get quickly defeated without
some other support craft.

The F-16 seems like a good multi role fighter for this but is there enough of them to attack specific targets and not just
defend ground.

I think the number committed to Ukraine by various countries is 60 something as of now. But they won't all come at once.

Between the SU-27 and MiG 29, the Ukrainians gave about 80, so their capability in both in quality and quantity will be significantly bolstered.

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