The “I want to retire soon” thread (2 Viewers)

[matttyl]

I thought we retire we go on Medicare and collect social security? Why is this so hard and confusing?

You can’t get on Medicare (unless you’re disabled) prior to 65. Many would like to retire prior to that. Full SS is 67 for many.

 

[Peggy]

I thought we retire we go on Medicare and collect social security? Why is this so hard and confusing?

For health care I'm trying to figure out what to do between ages 55 and 65 when I can finally sign up for Medicare. Cobra only get's you 18 months.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I wish they would lower the Medicare age to 62, when you can start taking benefits.

 

[SFBayDuck]

I thought we retire we go on Medicare and collect social security? Why is this so hard and confusing?

Sure, as long as you work until 65 and are happy moving into a trailer park in Estacada. NTTAWWT.

 

[NutterButter]

I think he was joking. Maybe.

 

[matttyl]

I thought we retire we go on Medicare and collect social security? Why is this so hard and confusing?

For health care I'm trying to figure out what to do between ages 55 and 65 when I can finally sign up for Medicare. Cobra only get's you 18 months.

If you’ll have a small business (very flexible definition - schedule C income), some states allow you to set up a group policy. Aside from that, you’ll be in the individual (ACA) market.

 

[Peggy]

I thought we retire we go on Medicare and collect social security? Why is this so hard and confusing?

For health care I'm trying to figure out what to do between ages 55 and 65 when I can finally sign up for Medicare. Cobra only get's you 18 months.

If you’ll have a small business (very flexible definition - schedule C income), some states allow you to set up a group policy. Aside from that, you’ll be in the individual (ACA) market.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Retiring in two weeks at age 62. Insurance was the one giving me heartburn, but it looks like I can get a policy thru ACA for just under $200/mo. I know I'm coming up short incomewise, but only $300-400/mo which I plan on making up by working part-time. I've had a couple financial guys look it over including my best friend and they both said I'll be fine.
Already joined a SR Mens Golf league on Monday mornings and am cleared to be an Uber driver.

I really think a lot of people wait too long looking to be in “perfect” financial shape and miss out on a lot of great years.

Agree. Normally, people are a lot more active in their 60's than their 70's and beyond.

Yes, but I think for most people, physical fitness wanes, and health problems start accumulating even earlier, like mid-50s.

I'd like to retire before that happens. Then again, I have delayed retirement a bit, by working part time for much of my career. The trade-off is more leisure time in my 40's/early 50s.

 

[Terminalxylem]

will probably end up in North Carolina area

A top 4 state IMO.

How many states have warm ocean beaches and "real" mountains? California, Virginia, North Carolina and.....?

Hawaii

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Retiring in two weeks at age 62. Insurance was the one giving me heartburn, but it looks like I can get a policy thru ACA for just under $200/mo. I know I'm coming up short incomewise, but only $300-400/mo which I plan on making up by working part-time. I've had a couple financial guys look it over including my best friend and they both said I'll be fine.
Already joined a SR Mens Golf league on Monday mornings and am cleared to be an Uber driver.

I really think a lot of people wait too long looking to be in “perfect” financial shape and miss out on a lot of great years.

Agree. Normally, people are a lot more active in their 60's than their 70's and beyond.

Yes, but I think for most people, physical fitness wanes, and health problems start accumulating even earlier, like mid-50s.

I'd like to retire before that happens. Then again, I have delayed retirement a bit, by working part time for much of my career. The trade-off is more leisure time in my 40's/early 50s.

Seems like a pretty reasonable trade-off if you can afford it, and I'm sure you probably can. Middle age is a good time to coast responsibly.

 

[matttyl]

Retiring in two weeks at age 62. Insurance was the one giving me heartburn, but it looks like I can get a policy thru ACA for just under $200/mo. I know I'm coming up short incomewise, but only $300-400/mo which I plan on making up by working part-time. I've had a couple financial guys look it over including my best friend and they both said I'll be fine.
Already joined a SR Mens Golf league on Monday mornings and am cleared to be an Uber driver.

I really think a lot of people wait too long looking to be in “perfect” financial shape and miss out on a lot of great years.

Agree. Normally, people are a lot more active in their 60's than their 70's and beyond.

Yes, but I think for most people, physical fitness wanes, and health problems start accumulating even earlier, like mid-50s.

I'd like to retire before that happens. Then again, I have delayed retirement a bit, by working part time for much of my career. The trade-off is more leisure time in my 40's/early 50s.

Personal story - my FIL “retired” (second career after military retirement) at 65ish. Within a year diagnosed with stage 4 esophageal cancer, passed within 3 months of diagnosis.

My own father diagnosed with colon cancer (stage 1) age 60ish. Surgery and treatment and we thought we had it beat. 5 years later, last fall we found that it was back, metastasized into his lungs (so by definition stage 4). He’s doing amazing in chemo so far, but everything changed. He and mom could have easily retired years ago.

Made the decision to expedite the process as much as we can, because you just never know what tomorrow can bring.

 

[General Malaise]

I think he was joking. Maybe.

Heh heh.....yeah.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Aside from that, you’ll be in the individual (ACA) market.

This where I'll probably end up although my agent said she may have some shorter term policies available until something new is hitting the market in Sept. She didn't elaborate.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Personal story - my FIL “retired” (second career after military retirement) at 65ish. Within a year diagnosed with stage 4 esophageal cancer, passed within 3 months of diagnosis.

My own father diagnosed with colon cancer (stage 1) age 60ish. Surgery and treatment and we thought we had it beat. 5 years later, last fall we found that it was back, metastasized into his lungs (so by definition stage 4). He’s doing amazing in chemo so far, but everything changed. He and mom could have easily retired years ago.

Made the decision to expedite the process as much as we can, because you just never know what tomorrow can bring.

I look at my parents and it's a totally different story but brings me to the same conclusion. My dad was still working into his 70s and loving his job, and he fell and suffered a TBI. He actually recovered pretty well and went back to work for a bit, but it was pretty quickly obvious it was time to hang it up. And because of his accident he went from 100 mile bike rides and playing tennis a couple of times a week to unable to do much more than garden and walk the dog. My mom retired a little before he did, and they had plans to do a couple of big trips and then covid hit and cancelled all of their plans for a couple of years. Now it seems like they've lost the motivation or desire to travel much, they keep talking about it but haven't planned anything. I think they missed the end of their go-go years, and maybe their slow-go years as well, and are now mostly in the no-go phase already.

 

[matttyl]

Aside from that, you’ll be in the individual (ACA) market.

This where I'll probably end up although my agent said she may have some shorter term policies available until something new is hitting the market in Sept. She didn't elaborate.

Happy to give you my $.02 if you’d like.

 

[Mr.Pack]

Aside from that, you’ll be in the individual (ACA) market.

This where I'll probably end up although my agent said she may have some shorter term policies available until something new is hitting the market in Sept. She didn't elaborate.

Happy to give you my $.02 if you’d like.

Absolutely!

 

[Mr.Pack]

Today is the day!

 

[Mookie]

This is the first week of my three day work schedule (M-W, 8am-6pm).

I'm 57, and could walk away now, but I still enjoy aspects of my work, and retiring now would be a bad financial decision (my pension hits a max at 61, and would only pay about 60% of that max if I retire now). I also enjoy aspects of my job. Boss is totally behind my plan, values me immensely, and has been really encouraging. I've had some minor medical issues (HBP and prostate cancer scare but under control), which allows me to take that one extra day off as sick time for about the next 6 months when we will reevaluate. Assuming it's working, we could then make it "permanent", although it would come with a cut in pay (would not affect my health insurance or future pension benefit).

My challenge is personal. I've always been very responsive and don't like to leave others hanging. I also have a constant need to check my email on off days to verify that nothing big requires my immediate attention. I have this lingering guilt about special treatment and working less than my peers. EI understand that I essentially have to care less about what I do, but does anyone else have these issues and what measures have you taken to manage them effectively?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

This is the first week of my three day work schedule (M-W, 8am-6pm).

I'm 57, and could walk away now, but I still enjoy aspects of my work, and retiring now would be a bad financial decision (my pension hits a max at 61, and would only pay about 60% of that max if I retire now). I also enjoy aspects of my job. Boss is totally behind my plan, values me immensely, and has been really encouraging. I've had some minor medical issues (HBP and prostate cancer scare but under control), which allows me to take that one extra day off as sick time for about the next 6 months when we will reevaluate. Assuming it's working, we could then make it "permanent", although it would come with a cut in pay (would not affect my health insurance or future pension benefit).

My challenge is personal. I've always been very responsive and don't like to leave others hanging. I also have a constant need to check my email on off days to verify that nothing big requires my immediate attention. I have this lingering guilt about special treatment and working less than my peers. EI understand that I essentially have to care less about what I do, but does anyone else have these issues and what measures have you taken to manage them effectively?

I used to feel this way, too. But there are two things to keep in mind:

1) In the short run, you do not get rewarded for being conscientious. It benefits your career prospects long-term, but if we're talking about retirement, we're not talking "long-term" here. Your less-conscientious colleagues have been offline every weekend and given concessions when they complain about being overworked (mine sure have). Don't feel bad for them.

2) Your employer will stop thinking about you at all within about 5 minutes of you clocking out on your last day. Don't worry about them.

We all know both of these on an intellectual level, but it takes a little while for them to really sink in.

 

[Peggy]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

 

[Sand]

After 2 weeks out I walk back into my office and it's a complete mushroom cloud.

I'm pitching a tent in here.

 

[SFBayDuck]

After 2 weeks out I walk back into my office and it's a complete mushroom cloud.

I'm pitching a tent in here.

euphemism(s)?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

After 2 weeks out I walk back into my office and it's a complete mushroom cloud.

I'm pitching a tent in here.

euphemism(s)?

At our age, I think it's okay for guys to brag a little.

 

[NutterButter]

Must have been some vacation

 

[Peggy]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

Well that happened a lot sooner than I expected. They've been asking me to relocate at the end of the year and all of a sudden today the VP stopped by my office and asked if I had been thinking about it. I told him that I wasn't going to take the new job, that I was going to retire at the end/beginning of the year.

 

[Desert_Power]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

Well that happened a lot sooner than I expected. They've been asking me to relocate at the end of the year and all of a sudden today the VP stopped by my office and asked if I had been thinking about it. I told him that I wasn't going to take the new job, that I was going to retire at the end/beginning of the year.

Congrats. That's certainly one way to do it.

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

Well that happened a lot sooner than I expected. They've been asking me to relocate at the end of the year and all of a sudden today the VP stopped by my office and asked if I had been thinking about it. I told him that I wasn't going to take the new job, that I was going to retire at the end/beginning of the year.

He’s like……..well, that didn’t go as planned.

 

[Beef Ravioli Part 2]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

Well that happened a lot sooner than I expected. They've been asking me to relocate at the end of the year and all of a sudden today the VP stopped by my office and asked if I had been thinking about it. I told him that I wasn't going to take the new job, that I was going to retire at the end/beginning of the year.

What was his response?

 

[Gally]

I'm reading "Die with Zero" right now, and while I don't agree with everything he proposes in the book there are some great nuggets. One of them is spending money on experiences earlier in life, as there are certain things you can do at younger ages that you won't be able to do later, and that applies from your 20s all the way up into your 50s-60s-70s, when we go through the go-go, slow-go, and finally no-go years. He also talks about the concept of compounding memory dividends - you get much more joy over your life from things you did earlier as you can think back on them fondly, tell stories, look at pictures, etc. For me that totally rings true, as there is a reason my college buddies and I still talk about so many of the same stories 30-35 years later.

Yeah, Die with Zero is a good book and this concept of dividends on experiences really resonated with me too.

Half way through this one, and skipped forward to read Chapter 8 to get to the punch line sooner. Just what I needed to help push me off the cliff. I'm done, working until January to get all of this year's company stock gains and that's it. Not letting them talk me into staying any longer. The models in the book show a optimal retirement age between 45 and 60. I'm already 55 so I'm sticking to the plan; relocating to where I want to retire at in the final quarter this year and calling it quits.

Well that happened a lot sooner than I expected. They've been asking me to relocate at the end of the year and all of a sudden today the VP stopped by my office and asked if I had been thinking about it. I told him that I wasn't going to take the new job, that I was going to retire at the end/beginning of the year.

What was his response?

Thank you for that. Can't just drop half the story and stop.

 

[Peggy]

He knew I was 50-50 when we talked about it a few months ago. I've been letting them know that this might be my last year for a while. He was fine with it and just said to let him know as soon as possible if I start to have second thoughts. I am scheduled to the end of the year on my current project so the timing seems perfect.

I've got a bunch of mixed emotions. It's the first time I've really committed firmly to it.

 

[NutterButter]

I've got a bunch of mixed emotions. It's the first time I've really committed firmly to it.

I think its just the loss of not being able to post in this thread any longer that's holding you back.

 

[Sand]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

 

[-OZ-]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

On a down day too. That’s impressive.

 

[Sand]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

On a down day too. That’s impressive.

I track weekly. I'm sure it's a bit down today.

 

[SFBayDuck]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

Congrats!

Just did my net worth update last night, up 40% in one year. If I remove home equity so just looking at cash and investments, which is what my FI number is based on, it's actually an even higher gain at 46% YoY. That's both saved/invested earnings and gains, of course, but still good to see that kind of progress. If I could somehow manage that again between now and next June, which would also coincide with the month my daughter finishes college, I'm going to have some real options. But that's probably not too realistic as last year was the best year of my career combined with the current close to ATHs in the equity markets.

It does have me considering speeding up the glide path to my retirement portfolio allocation just a little, as I was planning another 4 years for that. Might cut that time in half.

 

[Desert_Power]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

You getting close to retiring yet? I seem to recall you hit well above 25x expenses a few years ago.

 

[Sand]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

You getting close to retiring yet? I seem to recall you hit well above 25x expenses a few years ago.

Given longevity concerns I don't think 25x is reasonable. I want to be at 33x + some life starter monies for the kids + some expensive needed house fixes (roof, retaining wall, and others). Not quite there yet, but I'm closing in.

Then the question is can I let go of the job.

 

[-OZ-]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

Congrats!

Just did my net worth update last night, up 40% in one year. If I remove home equity so just looking at cash and investments, which is what my FI number is based on, it's actually an even higher gain at 46% YoY. That's both saved/invested earnings and gains, of course, but still good to see that kind of progress. If I could somehow manage that again between now and next June, which would also coincide with the month my daughter finishes college, I'm going to have some real options. But that's probably not too realistic as last year was the best year of my career combined with the current close to ATHs in the equity markets.

It does have me considering speeding up the glide path to my retirement portfolio allocation just a little, as I was planning another 4 years for that. Might cut that time in half.

Love it.
Ironically, we saw our gains for the year and decided it was time to buy the new SUV. You’re doing it right if you’re happy with the choice imo.

 

[-OZ-]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

You getting close to retiring yet? I seem to recall you hit well above 25x expenses a few years ago.

Given longevity concerns I don't think 25x is reasonable. I want to be at 33x + some life starter monies for the kids + some expensive needed house fixes (roof, retaining wall, and others). Not quite there yet, but I'm closing in.

Then the question is can I let go of the job.

It really just depends on your comfort in adjusting down.
I think I mentioned it before but we’re going with 20x.
Circumstances matter a lot.

 

[SFBayDuck]

25x expenses a few years ago.

(not directed at you or Sand, but for anyone reading who is newer to this topic....). This is absolutely an ok rule of thumb to keep in the back of your mind, but we're FBG, we know better!

• We've read Bengen's own updated thoughts - a more diversified portfolio than his original 50% total stock/50% total bond portfolio gets you to about 4.8% SWR.
• We're looking at the studies that show retirees don't spend anything like the Bengen/Trinity studies modeled - a standard amount every single year, adjusted by CPI. We know that retirement spending tends to start high while we're traveling to see the grandkids and going on nudist swinger cruises (not at the same time), dip as activity and travel decline and we play cribbage and tend to our (medicinal) cannabis gardens and watch Netflix (no chill, damn prostate!), and then increase again largely due to healthcare (those in-home "special massages" ain't cheap). It's called the "retirement spending smile" (picture it on a graph).
• As many/most retirees that have been financially responsible enough to save and think about this kind of thing either own their homes outright or have fixed-rate mortgages, we know that greatly reduces the impact of housing inflation, which makes up 1/3 of CPI. Many experts suggest CPI minus 1% as a more realistic inflation adjustment. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.
• The 4% "rule" also assumes that, no matter what's going on in the markets, you just keep spending that 4% +CPI year after year, come hell or high water. In reality we know we'll have the ability to adjust in down markets, and possibly spend more in up markets. That flexibility (guardrails is a common approach) reduces the likelihood of "failure".
• Many people, especially in the FIRE movement, don't consider SS at all in their calcs. I'd maybe tell my 20-year old daughter not to count on that, but (IMHO) all of us 50-60 year old bastards in here are highly likely to get most/all of what we're expecting (I personally model at 75% of what ssa.gov shows I'll be getting, to be a little conservative). So if 4% covers your expenses at 65 and you've modeled that out until 95, yet you're going to get $30-$50K annually in SS (or even more if you have two decent lifetime earners) when you start claiming at 70, inflation adjusted for the rest of your life.......you've been way too conservative.

And I've posted here before on that whole concept of "failure" in this context, which is strictly defined as not running out of money if you had retired in like 1967 into the worst sequence of returns experienced in the last century plus. It doesn't consider at all the "failure" of working longer than you want to or not spending as much as you could in retirement, and ending up with a pile of money you never spent when your time has come.

Your mileage may vary. You may care about leaving a charitable or family legacy, you may think SS will just up and disappear in 10 years, you may think returns over the next 30-40 years are going to be way lower than they've been historically due to the current high CAPE ratio or some other metric......or you may just be super conservative. Nothing inherently wrong with any of that. Just trying to present an alternative way of thinking about it that may let many of us get quite a bit more out of our golden years.

 

[Peggy]

New portfolio milestone hit today.

**** is getting realer.

You getting close to retiring yet? I seem to recall you hit well above 25x expenses a few years ago.

Given longevity concerns I don't think 25x is reasonable. I want to be at 33x + some life starter monies for the kids + some expensive needed house fixes (roof, retaining wall, and others). Not quite there yet, but I'm closing in.

Then the question is can I let go of the job.

I'm projected to be about 33%, but then a big tax bill and moving costs. Probably closer to 30%. I don't care, going for it before it's too late.

 

[Peggy]

Good post @SFBayDuck
My numbers don't count SS at all, I completely forget about it most of the time. Icing on the cake.

 

[Sand]

25x expenses a few years ago.

(not directed at you or Sand, but for anyone reading who is newer to this topic....). This is absolutely an ok rule of thumb to keep in the back of your mind, but we're FBG, we know better!

• We've read Bengen's own updated thoughts - a more diversified portfolio than his original 50% total stock/50% total bond portfolio gets you to about 4.8% SWR.
• We're looking at the studies that show retirees don't spend anything like the Bengen/Trinity studies modeled - a standard amount every single year, adjusted by CPI. We know that retirement spending tends to start high while we're traveling to see the grandkids and going on nudist swinger cruises (not at the same time), dip as activity and travel decline and we play cribbage and tend to our (medicinal) cannabis gardens and watch Netflix (no chill, damn prostate!), and then increase again largely due to healthcare (those in-home "special massages" ain't cheap). It's called the "retirement spending smile" (picture it on a graph).
• As many/most retirees that have been financially responsible enough to save and think about this kind of thing either own their homes outright or have fixed-rate mortgages, we know that greatly reduces the impact of housing inflation, which makes up 1/3 of CPI. Many experts suggest CPI minus 1% as a more realistic inflation adjustment. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.
• The 4% "rule" also assumes that, no matter what's going on in the markets, you just keep spending that 4% +CPI year after year, come hell or high water. In reality we know we'll have the ability to adjust in down markets, and possibly spend more in up markets. That flexibility (guardrails is a common approach) reduces the likelihood of "failure".
• Many people, especially in the FIRE movement, don't consider SS at all in their calcs. I'd maybe tell my 20-year old daughter not to count on that, but (IMHO) all of us 50-60 year old bastards in here are highly likely to get most/all of what we're expecting (I personally model at 75% of what ssa.gov shows I'll be getting, to be a little conservative). So if 4% covers your expenses at 65 and you've modeled that out until 95, yet you're going to get $30-$50K annually in SS (or even more if you have two decent lifetime earners) when you start claiming at 70, inflation adjusted for the rest of your life.......you've been way too conservative.

Thou doth protest too much.

When I hang it up I fully intend on following a dynamic withdrawal strategy. At least presently it's looking like a flavor of VPW (Bogleheads).