WR Keon Coleman, BUF (1 Viewer)

[FreeBaGeL]

I think the "bigger contested catch WR in college=NFL bust" narrative is a little overstated I think due to some recency bias specifically N'Keal Harry (who I always thought was overrated, Coleman is a better prospect than he was) and Laquon Treadwell. However, looking at WRs who were over 6-1 and 210+ pounds who ran 4.5+ and were picked round 1 or 2, you get the following names in the last 15 years:

Michael Crabtree
Hakeem Nicks
Dez Bryant
Justin Blackmon
DeAndre Hopkins
Kelvin Benjamin
Allen Robinson
Laquon Treadwell
Devin Funchess
Michael Thomas
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Courtland Sutton
N'Keal Harry
Michael Pittman
Laviska Shenault
Drake London

That's a pretty nice list for the most part. I'd have Coleman no lower than 11th in rookie rankings and wouldn't hesitate to take him over 1st round WR's Pearsall and Legette.

I'm not sure size+40 time is really an accurate link to contested catch/can't separate. For most of those guys I don't remember that being a big talking point about them as prospects compared to what it is for Coleman.

Dez is probably the best example of a guy that, at least to some extent, was thought of as a contested catch/lower separation guy and worked out. Maybe it's just been too long, but I don't recall it being a thing people were talking about with guys like Hopkins/Crabtree when they were coming out.

Here are the draft profiles of each on NFL.com

Hopkins
Presents good height and length for an outside receiver, also has some lower-body strength for explosion off the line of scrimmage and in his cuts. Solid route-runner used in the short, intermediate, and deep games, who has flexibility to avoid corners in zone and the quick feet to separate on hitches, comebacks, and other cuts. Does a nice job creating separation and deceiving defensive backs with head fakes and quick moves. Will threaten the top of defenses with NFL-quality straight-line speed. Possesses strong hands in traffic, not afraid of contact downfield and can separate at the last second with an arm extension. Agile enough to quickly avoid oncoming defenders after the catch yet remain balanced to head downfield for the big gain.

Crabtree
Ultra-productive, competitive playmaker with prototypical size. Excellent hands; snatches the ball from the air within or outside his body. Secures the ball quickly in his strong hands after the catch. Uses his size, initial quickness and hands to get inside or outside separation off the line of scrimmage. Runs quick slants and has the suddenness to take the route upfield. Excellent body control to high-point the ball in traffic, adjust to any poor throw, tiptoe on the sideline and find his way through creases. Can turn his man out, plant and get the inside shoulder, giving the quarterback a big target down the seam.

Coleman
Above-the-rim artist with circus catches resembling a scene from the tents of Cirque du Soleil. Coleman has excellent size and ball skills. He’s not sudden and doesn’t have great speed, so beating press and creating breathing room against tight man coverages will depend on his ability to improve as a route-runner. The former star basketball player has a rebounder’s blend of extension and timing to give jump-ball defenders the blues. He’s big and strong with soft hands, but he can play with a little more aggression in claiming his deep-ball space and getting after it as a run blocker.

Additionally, in the breakdown of strengths/weaknesses separation was listed as a strength in both Hopkins and Crabtree's profile, and was only mentioned as a weakness in terms of Crabtree's long speed to get separation over the top against fast corners. In Coleman's profile it is harped on pretty hard in his list of weaknesses, and even in his strengths section they are listing things that he's good at doing to combat his weak separation.

Strengths​

• Prototypical size and high-end ball skills.
• Attacks underneath throws with extended, sticky hands.
• Works aggressively back on short and intermediate throws.
• Unlikely to see focus drops when watching his tape.
• Meets jump balls with full extension to the high-point.
• Uses size to gain advantage over the cornerback on jump-ball wins.
• Hard to bring down after the catch and as a punt returner.

Weaknesses​

• Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride.
• Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts.
• Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches.
• Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space.
• Capable of being a much more effective run blocker.

Obviously lots of objectivity involved in that and there are probably 1000 different player profiles out there, but just because some of those other guys were decently sized and and didn't have blazing 40's doesn't necessarily mean they were considered contested catch/low separation guys like Coleman is generally regarded as.