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2024 Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
 
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I don't follow the Bills closely, but I really like the overall results in terms of receiving targets this season - Kincaid, Shakir, Samuel, Cook, and a speedy, field-stretching blue chipper in the draft. Will probably target Josh Allen early in start 1QB redrafts.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I don’t see much impact on Allen.

This was posted already earlier in the season and I saw it again today. Last 7 games last year.

Stefon Diggs
58 Targets
34 Receptions
315 Yards
1 TD

Khalil Shakir
24 Targets
20 Receptions
363 Yards
1 TD

Targeting Diggs in the back half last year actually hurt Allen’s productivity.
Shakir, Kincaid and even Cook are all capable of big improvements (but only if Cook can actually catch the ball 😂)

It is well documented that teams were NOT doubling Diggs in the back half last year. They didn’t have to.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I don’t see much impact on Allen.

This was posted already earlier in the season and I saw it again today. Last 7 games last year.

Stefon Diggs
58 Targets
34 Receptions
315 Yards
1 TD

Khalil Shakir
24 Targets
20 Receptions
363 Yards
1 TD

Targeting Diggs in the back half last year actually hurt Allen’s productivity.
Shakir, Kincaid and even Cook are all capable of big improvements (but only if Cook can actually catch the ball 😂)

It is well documented that teams were NOT doubling Diggs in the back half last year. They didn’t have to.
Fair points - any documentation that the top corners rolled away from Diggs? That could have some impact if those top covers now migrated to Samuel and/or Shakir and they were unable to get open as much. Lot of moving parts here, but I get what you're saying about Diggs not being as important part as one would think.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I agree with Duff Man. When the Bills acquired Diggs, Allen was a raw, 2nd-year player who needed a reliable WR1. At this point, I expect him to be fine. Obviously the offense as a whole will likely take a hit with Diggs and Davis leaving simultaneously, but that just makes 2024 a reset year for the team, which I think we were all kind of expecting anyway.
 
The Bills - Texans game got more interesting. In the draft, the Bills have a good chance to get Diggs' replacement.
 
Fantasy-wise, Allen is still very much a top-3 QB at worst, unless they suddenly stop doing those QB sneaks. I think losing Diggs, could push Jalen Hurts ahead of him for me, especially as Hurts got an OC upgrade, but its hard to come up with anyone else I'd argue over Allen. Maybe Stroud, if you think Diggs decline last year was offense/attitude and not ability, but its tough for non-running QBs to keep up unless their passing numbers are A TON better than the runners.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I didn’t watch much All-22 so I could be wrong, but I don’t think teams were doubling Diggs much, especially towards the end of the year. He actually did a pretty average job of getting open and had a whole lot of drops. I don’t want to pretend that he is easily replaceable, but his contract is way outsized for what he can provide on the field now.

Drafts are always crapshoots, but more rookie WRs now than ever are producing right out of the gate.

The whole thing isn’t great, but it certainly seems like Diggs started to decline last year.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I didn’t watch much All-22 so I could be wrong, but I don’t think teams were doubling Diggs much, especially towards the end of the year. He actually did a pretty average job of getting open and had a whole lot of drops. I don’t want to pretend that he is easily replaceable, but his contract is way outsized for what he can provide on the field now.

Drafts are always crapshoots, but more rookie WRs now than ever are producing right out of the gate.

The whole thing isn’t great, but it certainly seems like Diggs started to decline last year.
I see this as the Bills getting value for Diggs while he still has decent trade value, heading into what they know is going to be a reset year. The cap hit sucks, but at least they rip off that particular band-aid now, while they're adding youth at other positions. Belichick always did a good job of getting rid of players a year too early instead of a year too late, and that's a very good model to follow.

I'm kind of annoyed that the 2nd round pick doesn't arrive until 2025, since we really need that pick right now. But it figures to be an earlier pick next year, so that kind of balances out I guess.

I don't know this obviously, but it would not surprise me at all if Diggs had some kind of undisclosed injury last season, or if there was a locker room issue leading to him to not showing up in the second half of the year. I've been a big defender of his during his time with the Bills, but his play was abysmal last year. He was a straight-up liability in many games, including the one that ended our season. I don't know what was wrong, but it's not our problem now.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I didn’t watch much All-22 so I could be wrong, but I don’t think teams were doubling Diggs much, especially towards the end of the year. He actually did a pretty average job of getting open and had a whole lot of drops. I don’t want to pretend that he is easily replaceable, but his contract is way outsized for what he can provide on the field now.

Drafts are always crapshoots, but more rookie WRs now than ever are producing right out of the gate.

The whole thing isn’t great, but it certainly seems like Diggs started to decline last year.
I see this as the Bills getting value for Diggs while he still has decent trade value, heading into what they know is going to be a reset year. The cap hit sucks, but at least they rip off that particular band-aid now, while they're adding youth at other positions. Belichick always did a good job of getting rid of players a year too early instead of a year too late, and that's a very good model to follow.

I'm kind of annoyed that the 2nd round pick doesn't arrive until 2025, since we really need that pick right now. But it figures to be an earlier pick next year, so that kind of balances out I guess.

I don't know this obviously, but it would not surprise me at all if Diggs had some kind of undisclosed injury last season, or if there was a locker room issue leading to him to not showing up in the second half of the year. I've been a big defender of his during his time with the Bills, but his play was abysmal last year. He was a straight-up liability in many games, including the one that ended our season. I don't know what was wrong, but it's not our problem now.
As usual, I totally agree with @IvanKaramazov. In addition, this trade tells me that contrary to my beliefs last year (a nagging injury caused the drop-off), perhaps he wasn't banged up and the Bills see him as hitting a wall.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I didn’t watch much All-22 so I could be wrong, but I don’t think teams were doubling Diggs much, especially towards the end of the year. He actually did a pretty average job of getting open and had a whole lot of drops. I don’t want to pretend that he is easily replaceable, but his contract is way outsized for what he can provide on the field now.

Drafts are always crapshoots, but more rookie WRs now than ever are producing right out of the gate.

The whole thing isn’t great, but it certainly seems like Diggs started to decline last year.
I see this as the Bills getting value for Diggs while he still has decent trade value, heading into what they know is going to be a reset year. The cap hit sucks, but at least they rip off that particular band-aid now, while they're adding youth at other positions. Belichick always did a good job of getting rid of players a year too early instead of a year too late, and that's a very good model to follow.

I'm kind of annoyed that the 2nd round pick doesn't arrive until 2025, since we really need that pick right now. But it figures to be an earlier pick next year, so that kind of balances out I guess.

I don't know this obviously, but it would not surprise me at all if Diggs had some kind of undisclosed injury last season, or if there was a locker room issue leading to him to not showing up in the second half of the year. I've been a big defender of his during his time with the Bills, but his play was abysmal last year. He was a straight-up liability in many games, including the one that ended our season. I don't know what was wrong, but it's not our problem now.
As usual, I totally agree with @IvanKaramazov. In addition, this trade tells me that contrary to my beliefs last year (a nagging injury caused the drop-off), perhaps he wasn't banged up and the Bills see him as hitting a wall.
Beane reiterated after the season that Diggs wasn’t injured and he never showed up on the injury report.

I know part of this is probably me being a homer and doing what I can to rationalize it all, but just in case anyone forgot, in their playoff loss to the Chiefs Diggs fumbled on the first play of the game, flat out dropped the next pass to him, and dropped a surefire wide open 55 yard TD that would have given them the lead towards the end of the game and may have cost them the game.
 
The division sure will be interesting this year. I'm sure everybody would pencil in New England at #4, but the rest of the standings could go however.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I agree with Duff Man. When the Bills acquired Diggs, Allen was a raw, 2nd-year player who needed a reliable WR1. At this point, I expect him to be fine. Obviously the offense as a whole will likely take a hit with Diggs and Davis leaving simultaneously, but that just makes 2024 a reset year for the team, which I think we were all kind of expecting anyway.

The season is still 5 months away. Still have plenty of time to land a #1 WR. Eagles got AJ Brown at the draft a few years ago. I expect Buffalo has something similar in the works.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I agree with Duff Man. When the Bills acquired Diggs, Allen was a raw, 2nd-year player who needed a reliable WR1. At this point, I expect him to be fine. Obviously the offense as a whole will likely take a hit with Diggs and Davis leaving simultaneously, but that just makes 2024 a reset year for the team, which I think we were all kind of expecting anyway.

The season is still 5 months away. Still have plenty of time to land a #1 WR. Eagles got AJ Brown at the draft a few years ago. I expect Buffalo has something similar in the works.
Higgins might be someone to watch, although not sure the Bengals want be interested in helping the Bills.
 
I don’t see the Bills trading for a veteran receiver. Their cap was a mess this year and they have just $3M in space now after eating $31M in dead cap for Diggs. It’s finally looking decent for next year. Trading for a receiver and having to give them a big extension just doesn’t make much sense after everything they did this offseason.

I think they look to draft a rookie that can become a #1 receiver and rely heavily on Samuel, Shakir and Kincaid this year. I think they like Shakir a lot more than most people realize (he honestly was pretty good last year when he got targeted). And I could definitely see them trying to rely on Kincaid like a Kelce or Andrews.
 
How do the homers feel the Diggs trade affects Allen from a fantasy perspective?

While Diggs' stats clearly fell off last year, he still was enough of a credible threat to draw coverage away and make the offense continue to move. Obviously we need to see who they add in the draft at WR to make a full assessment, but can he make it work nearly as well in the passing game with said rookie(s), Shakir, Samuel and Kincaid? And how much does the more run heavy scheme under Brady affect the offense's potential?
I agree with Duff Man. When the Bills acquired Diggs, Allen was a raw, 2nd-year player who needed a reliable WR1. At this point, I expect him to be fine. Obviously the offense as a whole will likely take a hit with Diggs and Davis leaving simultaneously, but that just makes 2024 a reset year for the team, which I think we were all kind of expecting anyway.

The season is still 5 months away. Still have plenty of time to land a #1 WR. Eagles got AJ Brown at the draft a few years ago. I expect Buffalo has something similar in the works.
Higgins might be someone to watch, although not sure the Bengals want be interested in helping the Bills.
I'd actually see that trade as being help for the Bengals.

At this point I think the Bills are ready to roll with Shakir, Kincaid, Samuel, Knox, [Rookie], Shorter (I hope).
 
These are eye opening stats, for the last 12 games of the year including playoffs.

Diggs
Receptions 42
Targets 71
Catch rate 59.2%
Yards 388
TDs 2
Drop Rate 12.5%
QBR when Targeted 77.7
Not sure about the rest of your stats but that's for sure not Diggs numbers for his last 12 games.

I think I get 62 reception on 99 targets. 2 TDs. About 580 yards super rough mental math? 7% drop rate.
 
This is going to be an interesting year. With Allen they surely are going to be competitive. But, with a 1st place schedule, they'll have some tough teams to beat to make the playoffs, win the division, etc.

That said, the roster is going to be very 'new', obviously. I'm excited to see how it plays out, especially knowing that after this year they will be back on track with the cap and stuff.
 
In other news, I didn’t listen a lot, but kind of disappointing that Bleacher Report just killed the entire Buffalo Rumblings podcast network.
 
This is going to be an interesting year. With Allen they surely are going to be competitive. But, with a 1st place schedule, they'll have some tough teams to beat to make the playoffs, win the division, etc.

That said, the roster is going to be very 'new', obviously. I'm excited to see how it plays out, especially knowing that after this year they will be back on track with the cap and stuff.
This is the first year in a while when I would pick somebody else to win the division. I would bet on Miami, then Buffalo, then the Jets, but the gap between the Bills and NYJ might not be all that large depending on what they get from Rodgers. We'll be in the mix as long as Allen stays healthy.
 
This is the first year in a while when I would pick somebody else to win the division. I would bet on Miami, then Buffalo, then the Jets, but the gap between the Bills and NYJ might not be all that large depending on what they get from Rodgers. We'll be in the mix as long as Allen stays healthy.
Buffalo is still the betting favorite to win the AFC east, but the gap has narrowed considerably compared to last year. The opening probability for BUF to win 2024 was at ~44%, and now at ~37%. For Miami, it went from 33% to ~36%, and for NYJ from 25% to ~29%.

I'm not sure how much of that was losing Diggs, or losing the other guys like Poyer, Hyde, etc. I think the BUF defense takes a step back, which means more pressure on Allen to score, great for fantasy. The NYJ gained in free agency on the oline.

Miami and Buffalo have a tough out of division schedule, the title is up for grabs but I'd still bet on BUF because of Allen.
 
This is the first year in a while when I would pick somebody else to win the division. I would bet on Miami, then Buffalo, then the Jets, but the gap between the Bills and NYJ might not be all that large depending on what they get from Rodgers. We'll be in the mix as long as Allen stays healthy.
Buffalo is still the betting favorite to win the AFC east, but the gap has narrowed considerably compared to last year. The opening probability for BUF to win 2024 was at ~44%, and now at ~37%. For Miami, it went from 33% to ~36%, and for NYJ from 25% to ~29%.

I'm not sure how much of that was losing Diggs, or losing the other guys like Poyer, Hyde, etc. I think the BUF defense takes a step back, which means more pressure on Allen to score, great for fantasy. The NYJ gained in free agency on the oline.

Miami and Buffalo have a tough out of division schedule, the title is up for grabs but I'd still bet on BUF because of Allen.
I think Rodger’s health is the biggest factor in that division. If healthy and can even be a decent game manager it will be tough for anyone to overtake them in that division. They boosted the oline so the running game should be dynamic with Breece this year. Their defense should be top notch which will keep them close in most games. While the Bill’s will no doubt boost their pass catchers, relying on rookies to make a big impact and quickly get on the same page as the QB is a dice roll. This may force the Bill’s to rely more heavily on Allen to make plays with his leg’s which will expose more risk to him getting banged up. This could be a very tight finish between the top three squads.
 
I have a completely different view of the situation.

We didn’t lose prime Poyer/Hyde. We lost Poyer/Hyde from last year. They combined for 2 INTs, 7 passes defended, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble. It is entirely possible they are better at safety.

We saw what the offence was like without an effective Diggs. They nearly ran the table. And this with them STILL feeding Diggs even though it was to their detriment to do that. Now that pressure will be gone.

A lot of talk about Diggs drawing double teams. Maybe early in the season but I don’t think that was the case late in the year. Looking for some data on that.
 
No Tyler Boyd chatter?
I'd rather have Boyd than Samuel, by a smidge, but I think at this point they aren't bringing in another FA.

I think they are hoping to get the #3/#4 WR in the draft. (Pre-Diggs trade I was really hoping they would trade down in the first for a lineman, and trade up in the second round for McConkey.)

That said, Shakir has proven himself in my eyes. They have Kincaid who is a stud. Knox is a good receiving option. I hope part of the Diggs trade was that they see some good things in Shorter. Throw in a 1st/2nd round rookie that they'll be forced to play more than they usually do with rookies, and I think they're not in as bad shape as it would appear if you are just looking at losing the top 2 WRs from last year.

:popcorn:
 
This is going to be an interesting year. With Allen they surely are going to be competitive. But, with a 1st place schedule, they'll have some tough teams to beat to make the playoffs, win the division, etc.

That said, the roster is going to be very 'new', obviously. I'm excited to see how it plays out, especially knowing that after this year they will be back on track with the cap and stuff.
This is the first year in a while when I would pick somebody else to win the division. I would bet on Miami, then Buffalo, then the Jets, but the gap between the Bills and NYJ might not be all that large depending on what they get from Rodgers. We'll be in the mix as long as Allen stays healthy.
Yeah, I'm pretty much there with you. If I were putting money on it I'd say its 40/40/20 between Bills/Dolphins/Jets.
 
No Tyler Boyd chatter?
Also, are you a Boyd owner hoping his stock goes through the roof should he play with Allen? :P
He is a deep bench guy on a dynasty team, but I was thinking if he isn't getting a contract he likes, which it seems is the case, who could use him, that can offer targets?
Not sure Boyd has anything to offer Buffalo. They have 2 younger, better slot guys. If they really wanted to add a vet, Beckham would make more sense, though he comes with some of the same baggage Diggs had.

My guess is they draft 2 WRs. Likely one at #28 (I don't love him, but I think Worthy could be their guy) and possibly another on day 2.
 
I have a completely different view of the situation.

We didn’t lose prime Poyer/Hyde. We lost Poyer/Hyde from last year. They combined for 2 INTs, 7 passes defended, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble. It is entirely possible they are better at safety.

We saw what the offence was like without an effective Diggs. They nearly ran the table. And this with them STILL feeding Diggs even though it was to their detriment to do that. Now that pressure will be gone.

A lot of talk about Diggs drawing double teams. Maybe early in the season but I don’t think that was the case late in the year. Looking for some data on that.
I mostly agree. Poyer has lost quite a few steps, and Hyde is probably going to retire. Those guys were phenomenal free agent signings. A+/S-tier/out-of-the-park signings. But that was seven (?) years ago and football is not a friendly game for old men. Losing Tre sucks, but by the same token, he wasn't Tre anymore. Unfortunately, his career got derailed in New Orleans. I'm not sure that I was really comfortable relying on Morse for another year given his concussion history. I love all those players, but losing them is more of an emotional loss than a real Xs-and-Os loss. They're replaceable.

But I disagree about Diggs. I don't know what his deal was last year, but it's not as if he went from All Pro to scrub over the course of a single season. He's going to be an effective player for Houston, and the Bills are meaningfully worse off now that he is gone. We're going to be asking a lot from guys like Kincaid and Shakir and Cook, and while I'm optimistic about those players, none of them has proven a damn thing in the NFL. Can't say that about Diggs.

Then again, maybe you're right. None of us really knows what the problem was with Diggs. Maybe getting rid of him solves some kind of locker room issue and things work out just fine next year. That's certainly possible. I just wouldn't bet on it.
 
Ugh. Sal Capaccio has us mocked to take Worthy. I hope that’s not the case. I don’t want him.
I like Worthy, but he would seem to overlap with where Samuel and Shakir can play.

I hope they trade down while adding a 3rd. take Troy Franklin, trade down with their 2nd round pick, then start grabbing S/OL/DL and another WR.
 
Ugh. Sal Capaccio has us mocked to take Worthy. I hope that’s not the case. I don’t want him.
I like Worthy, but he would seem to overlap with where Samuel and Shakir can play.

I hope they trade down while adding a 3rd. take Troy Franklin, trade down with their 2nd round pick, then start grabbing S/OL/DL and another WR.
A month or two ago I was wanting them to trade down in the 1st of a lineman, and up in the second for Ladd McConkey. Projections have changed, so I'm not even sure what I want now. I'd be fine trading down and taking a WR, hoping Thomas Jr falls, or even swinging big and trading up for a bigger name.
 
there's a lot of smoke on 2 things... trading way up and Worthy
Oh man. I misread that at first. I read "trading up".

My response to that was, well, yeah, that's Beane. He'll jump up a bit to get his guy,

But, "trading way up" is something I've been pondering lately. Can they get one of the top 3? Would it be worth the fortune they'd have to pay? (I don't see any of them sliding for any reason.)
 
I just want them to get whatever WR they're targeting.

I'd prefer that they not trade up, but if they do, fine. This isn't Sammy Watkins 2.0, because we have Josh Allen already. Get that man a weapon.
 
there's a lot of smoke on 2 things... trading way up and Worthy
Oh man. I misread that at first. I read "trading up".

My response to that was, well, yeah, that's Beane. He'll jump up a bit to get his guy,

But, "trading way up" is something I've been pondering lately. Can they get one of the top 3? Would it be worth the fortune they'd have to pay? (I don't see any of them sliding for any reason.)
It worked out great for Atlanta. I would have no objection to a huge trade up given the current state of our roster. We're going to be (potentially) one player away for the next 5-7 seasons or so. Go get your player if you can.
 
I prefer to not trade up, as well, but if the cost is the 2nd they got for Diggs, I see it as a wash. (Surely the rookie won't do what Diggs can do, yet, but he'll cost much less for 4 years.) That's more or less even in my mind, so I don't mind if they do that. If they start throwing in another 2, or even a 1, I'll be a bit more skeptical.
 
I prefer to not trade up, as well, but if the cost is the 2nd they got for Diggs, I see it as a wash. (Surely the rookie won't do what Diggs can do, yet, but he'll cost much less for 4 years.) That's more or less even in my mind, so I don't mind if they do that. If they start throwing in another 2, or even a 1, I'll be a bit more skeptical.
I think to get one of Odunze or Nabers they’d have to give up this year’s 1st and 3rd and next year’s 1st at minimum. Maybe trading back and forth some lower picks as part of that as well. It’s going to be really expensive to trade up in this draft with so many QB needy teams and so many good OL that teams may want to trade up for (not to mention the WRs of course)
 

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