dschuler
Footballguy
Team QB change probability (No particular order)
Top 2024 QB Draft Prospects:
Caleb Williams - USC
Drake Maye - UNC
Quinn Ewers - Texas
Shedeur Sanders - Colorado
Jordan Travis - FSU
KJ Jefferson - Arkansas
Michael Penix Jr. - Washington
Riley Leonard - Duke
JJ McCarthy - Michigan
Bo Nix - Oregon
Jayden Daniels - LSU
Spencer Rattler - South Carolina
Joe Milton - Tennessee
Tyler Van Dyke - Miami
More prospects will be added soon
For those that do not watch college football, the current NFL QB class for the draft next season could be deeper than any other season and by a long shot. As of now, there is a potential for 8-9 QBs to get selected in the first round. There is even more talent than that, and several other players grade out very highly and will get drafted on day 2 or later due to the depth of the QB class. Although 8-9 QBs is highly unlikely in the first round, it shows you how much talent is about to come into the NFL. To give you an idea of just how deep this class is, CBS just did a mock draft this week and had 6 QBs going in the first round. Of the six, they did not include the former #1 recruit in the nation that’s ranked #3 overall on NFLDraftBuzz in Quinn Ewers. Last year’s draft class had 10 QBs ranked 80 or higher, 18 QBs rank higher than 80 for the incoming class so far with a whole season to improve and six rank as high as #4 overall pick Anthony Richardson. This is so unique that it will absolutely have a waterfall effect and I think you could easily see more than 1/3 of NFL teams that will make a move to potentially have a different starting QB from their current one by either drafting a QB, signing a free agent, making a trade as QBs switch places or putting in a new QB they’ve already drafted this past season. For some NFL organizations, they’ve likely anticipated this draft class and have already made preparations for it (unloading other QBs, avoiding high QB salaries, draft pick stocking, etc).
I’ve made 8 different categories to put each NFL team with a chance that would associate them with a QB change. Some may surprise you, others not so much. To define a QB change, it will be having a different starter than the current one or drafting a QB in one of the first three rounds next season in anticipation of a change. These projections will continue to change in real time as teams win and lose games, players declare for the draft, and circumstances play out. I will continue to update this list periodically.
0 - No real chance (<2%)
1 - 3-7% probability
2 - 8-24% probability
3 - 25-40% probability
4 - 41-55% probability
5 - 56-75% probability
6 - >76% probability
7 - QB has changed
*Number in parentheses is where they started week 1.*
Group 0 - No substantial chance
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes 0
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence 0
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow 0
Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Hurts 0
Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen 0
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 0
Houston Texans - CJ Stroud (1)
Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson (1)
Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young (1)
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson (1)
Group 1 - Highly Unlikely
Cleveland Browns - DeShaun Watson (2)
Detroit Lions - Jared Goff (2)
Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott (2)
Group 2 - Low
Miami Dolphins - Tua (3)
San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy (4)
Group 3
Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Pickett (3)
Group 4 - Coin Flip
New Orleans Saints - Derek Carr (4)
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray (6)
Washington Commanders - Sam Howell (6)
Denver Broncos - Russell Wilson (4)
Seattle Seahawks - Geno Smith (4)
Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford (5)
New England Patriots - Mac Jones (4)
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields (5)
Group 6 - Highly Likely
New York Giants - Daniel Jones (3)
New York Jets - Zach Wilson (6)
Tampa Bay Bucs - Baker Mayfield (6)
Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love (2)
Group 7 - Team has made QB change or drafted QB replacement
1. Atlanta Falcons - Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder (5)
2. Las Vegas Raiders - Aidan O’Connell over Jimmy G (6)
3. Minnesota Vikings - Josh Dobbs over Kirk Cousins (5) (Injury into free agency)
4. Tennessee Titans - Will Levis over Ryan Tannehill (6) Not official but I’ll call it now
Top 2024 QB Draft Prospects:
Caleb Williams - USC
Drake Maye - UNC
Quinn Ewers - Texas
Shedeur Sanders - Colorado
Jordan Travis - FSU
KJ Jefferson - Arkansas
Michael Penix Jr. - Washington
Riley Leonard - Duke
JJ McCarthy - Michigan
Bo Nix - Oregon
Jayden Daniels - LSU
Spencer Rattler - South Carolina
Joe Milton - Tennessee
Tyler Van Dyke - Miami
More prospects will be added soon
For those that do not watch college football, the current NFL QB class for the draft next season could be deeper than any other season and by a long shot. As of now, there is a potential for 8-9 QBs to get selected in the first round. There is even more talent than that, and several other players grade out very highly and will get drafted on day 2 or later due to the depth of the QB class. Although 8-9 QBs is highly unlikely in the first round, it shows you how much talent is about to come into the NFL. To give you an idea of just how deep this class is, CBS just did a mock draft this week and had 6 QBs going in the first round. Of the six, they did not include the former #1 recruit in the nation that’s ranked #3 overall on NFLDraftBuzz in Quinn Ewers. Last year’s draft class had 10 QBs ranked 80 or higher, 18 QBs rank higher than 80 for the incoming class so far with a whole season to improve and six rank as high as #4 overall pick Anthony Richardson. This is so unique that it will absolutely have a waterfall effect and I think you could easily see more than 1/3 of NFL teams that will make a move to potentially have a different starting QB from their current one by either drafting a QB, signing a free agent, making a trade as QBs switch places or putting in a new QB they’ve already drafted this past season. For some NFL organizations, they’ve likely anticipated this draft class and have already made preparations for it (unloading other QBs, avoiding high QB salaries, draft pick stocking, etc).
I’ve made 8 different categories to put each NFL team with a chance that would associate them with a QB change. Some may surprise you, others not so much. To define a QB change, it will be having a different starter than the current one or drafting a QB in one of the first three rounds next season in anticipation of a change. These projections will continue to change in real time as teams win and lose games, players declare for the draft, and circumstances play out. I will continue to update this list periodically.
0 - No real chance (<2%)
1 - 3-7% probability
2 - 8-24% probability
3 - 25-40% probability
4 - 41-55% probability
5 - 56-75% probability
6 - >76% probability
7 - QB has changed
*Number in parentheses is where they started week 1.*
Group 0 - No substantial chance
Kansas City Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes 0
Jacksonville Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence 0
Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow 0
Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Hurts 0
Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen 0
Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert 0
Houston Texans - CJ Stroud (1)
Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Richardson (1)
Carolina Panthers - Bryce Young (1)
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson (1)
Group 1 - Highly Unlikely
Cleveland Browns - DeShaun Watson (2)
Detroit Lions - Jared Goff (2)
Dallas Cowboys - Dak Prescott (2)
Group 2 - Low
Miami Dolphins - Tua (3)
San Francisco 49ers - Brock Purdy (4)
Group 3
Pittsburgh Steelers - Kenny Pickett (3)
Group 4 - Coin Flip
New Orleans Saints - Derek Carr (4)
Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray (6)
Washington Commanders - Sam Howell (6)
Denver Broncos - Russell Wilson (4)
Seattle Seahawks - Geno Smith (4)
Group 5 - Some Heat on the seat
Los Angeles Rams - Matt Stafford (5)
New England Patriots - Mac Jones (4)
Chicago Bears - Justin Fields (5)
Group 6 - Highly Likely
New York Giants - Daniel Jones (3)
New York Jets - Zach Wilson (6)
Tampa Bay Bucs - Baker Mayfield (6)
Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love (2)
Group 7 - Team has made QB change or drafted QB replacement
1. Atlanta Falcons - Taylor Heinicke over Desmond Ridder (5)
2. Las Vegas Raiders - Aidan O’Connell over Jimmy G (6)
3. Minnesota Vikings - Josh Dobbs over Kirk Cousins (5) (Injury into free agency)
4. Tennessee Titans - Will Levis over Ryan Tannehill (6) Not official but I’ll call it now
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