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Week Six DFS (1 Viewer)

FatNate said:
FBG are projecting Hunt to be the most owned player of the week at over 30%.  RG has not updated the projection, since the Chubb news broke.  FanDuel numbers also. 
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Thanks.   I will for sure readjust all this stuff tomorrow after other sites are updated for comparisons.    4for4 has him at 8%, and Chubb is not in the rankings.   They have Taylor, Ekeler, Williams, and Henderson at 20%+ on FD for the highest owned plays.   Similar on DK with Taylor, Swift, Williams at the top and Hunt at 4%.   

 
KarmaPolice said:
Thanks.   I will for sure readjust all this stuff tomorrow after other sites are updated for comparisons.    4for4 has him at 8%, and Chubb is not in the rankings.   They have Taylor, Ekeler, Williams, and Henderson at 20%+ on FD for the highest owned plays.   Similar on DK with Taylor, Swift, Williams at the top and Hunt at 4%.   
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Ignoring ownership and price, the RBs I like are Taylor, Cook, Jones and Elliott.  I'll have some Henderson, Pollard, and Hunt.  On the low end I like KC DWilliams and Herbert.

 
KarmaPolice said:
DK stuff painted a different picture.  Again, I will look again on Saturday, but there were more low % I liked.  On top of most of the same names from FD on DK these names popped out:

Dak, K.Murray, M.Williams, Hopkins

Then I looked at the position leverage scores, and names in the top 3 at their positions were:

Lamar, D.Swift, Chubb, J.Chase, Andrews.   

I thought that was really interesting and wondered if I should consider using the correlation of Swift/Chase in 2-3 of my 4 LUs and maybe near locking in Andrews.  At their prices it would probably be easy to build stacks around that core.  
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@KarmaPolice where are you getting the position leverage scores? Awesemo?

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Ignoring ownership and price, the RBs I like are Taylor, Cook, Jones and Elliott.  I'll have some Henderson, Pollard, and Hunt.  On the low end I like KC DWilliams and Herbert.
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I think Zeke is getting a little over looked this week.  I believe Dallas will be in a position to the run ball plenty this week.  He is on my radar, more as a contrarian play, but someone I want to work into a few lineups. 

 
FatNate said:
I think Zeke is getting a little over looked this week.  I believe Dallas will be in a position to the run ball plenty this week.  He is on my radar, more as a contrarian play, but someone I want to work into a few lineups. 
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This is one of those high variance games.  I'll have exposure to both defenses.  NE is a run funnel defense.  Between Zeke and Pollard the dallas run game will probably be my second highest RB exposure behind only Taylor...with Cook and Jones the next best options.

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
This is one of those high variance games.  I'll have exposure to both defenses.  NE is a run funnel defense.  Between Zeke and Pollard the dallas run game will probably be my second highest RB exposure behind only Taylor...with Cook and Jones the next best options.
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Such a different route than I am going.  Not right or wrong — just different than mine.  Specifically, Cook and Jones, are not on my radar.  

 
I believe many will use the value at RB to get the high price guys, specifically the KC trio (Mahomes, Hill, & Kelce).  I believe I am going to go balanced at RB and hammer those $7000-$8000 guys.  Also, plan to settle into that same tier of QBs.  I am only considering four TEs this week:  Seals-Jones, Allie-Cox, Kelce, & Andrews.  I am avoiding CLE & IND defenses, because it appears they are going to come in way over owned for me. After all that, it looks like I will need some luck from Pittman or Meyers at WR, which I do not love.  I should still be able to fit a Chase, Allen, Higgins, or Woods in there at WR.  I will have some KC/WAS, but I am worried I may not have enough to compete.  I believe I will be over weight on LAC, LAR, & IND, plus the CIN/DET game. 

 
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KarmaPolice said:
It's early, so I will update on Sat if people like this.   

Their top team stack % odds were (in order):  KC, LaR, Balt, Cinc, Car    FWIW they have KC as 2-3x more likely than LaR to be top stack.  

Leverage stack for DK = KC, GB, Cinci, Az, LaR

Leverage for FD = KC, GB, Cin, Car, Az
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This am after an update this is now at:

Top stacks:  KC, LaR, LaC, GB, Balt, Cin

Top Leverage for FD:  KC, LaC, LaR, GB, Cin.          (Balt, Clev, Wash were lowest leverage score). 

Top Leverage for DK:  GB, LaR, KC, Cinc, Az, LaC    

 
Just looking at the leverage stacks and the over/unders, I had the impulse this am just to try my best to correlate and hammer those couple main games.  

ie:  my Mahomes LU = 

Mahomes - Ekeler/McKinnon/Dillon - Hill/Allen/M.Brown - RSJ - AZ

I figure McKinnon would be a low % that would be more tied to Mahomes, and then run it back with RSJ.   When I looked at LaC correlation, road games had Ekeler+Allen as the highest correlation, so I used that and ran it back with M.Brown.   Dillon is another low% WTF play.    

Did similar with my Burrow LU:

Burrow - Ekeler/Zeke/D.Williams - Allen/Chase/St.Brown - Andrews - AZ

:shrug:

ETA:  this is for FD Milly Maker.   Working on my DK LUs now. 

 
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FatNate said:
I believe many will use the value at RB to get the high price guys, specifically the KC trio (Mahomes, Hill, & Kelce).  I believe I am going to go balanced at RB and hammer those $7000-$8000 guys.  Also, plan to settle into that same tier of QBs.  I am only considering four TEs this week:  Seals-Jones, Allie-Cox, Kelce, & Andrews.  I am avoiding CLE & IND defenses, because it appears they are going to come in way over owned for me. After all that, it looks like I will need some luck from Pittman or Meyers at WR, which I do not love.  I should still be able to fit a Chase, Allen, Higgins, or Woods in there at WR.  I will have some KC/WAS, but I am worried I may not have enough to compete.  I believe I will be over weight on LAC, LAR, & IND, plus the CIN/DET game. 
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I never do it, but I am considering it this week — double TE on FanDuel.  I know.  I hear ya.  Must be crazy.  I just like Kelce, so much this week and I think the value on Andrews and Seals-Jones is solid.  I won’t go all in on the double TE, but I will have a couple. 

 
FatNate said:
At 50% ownership, do we fade Hunt, in milly maker?
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FWIW, awesemo just updated an hour ago and Hunt still by far has the highest leverage score despite the elevated ownership.   

They have him at 25% ownership, but still high leverage because they have him at 40% odds to be one of the top 2 RBs, and 40% odds to be in the optimal LU.   For context, his leverage score is 15% and the next best RB is K.Herbert at 4.8%.   

Lamar is similar this week - highest leverage score despite being the highest projected ownership.  He is at 8% leverage and next highest is Wentz at 3.3%.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
FWIW, awesemo just updated an hour ago and Hunt still by far has the highest leverage score despite the elevated ownership.   

They have him at 25% ownership, but still high leverage because they have him at 40% odds to be one of the top 2 RBs, and 40% odds to be in the optimal LU.   For context, his leverage score is 15% and the next best RB is K.Herbert at 4.8%.   

Lamar is similar this week - highest leverage score despite being the highest projected ownership.  He is at 8% leverage and next highest is Wentz at 3.3%.  
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Hunt sounds like ‘chalk’ we should eat and fade at your own risk!

 
What keeps confusing me is that they have Balt as the worst team for leverage, but Lamar is the highest leverage Qb.  

For top team % the update is KC, LaR, Balt, Cinc, GB, LaC    Then leverage is KC, LaR, Cin, GB, Car, LaC. 

top leverage players on FD were:  (just doing top 3)

Lamar, Wentz, D.Jones, Hunt, Herbert, Henderson, Pittman, Meyers, Chase, Fant, RS-J, Andrews Min, Clev, Wash

 
Probably got carried away with the correlation, but it had a decent contrarian score as I worked on DK LUs:

Rodgers - Hunt/Herbert - Adams/Thielen/DJ Moore/Hardman - RSJ - Clev

I think I like this.   I could do Brown/Allen instead of Moore/Thielen, but that was a lot higher owned and dropped the contrarian ranking to <10%.  

 
KarmaPolice said:
looks like awesemo bumped it up to 37%.    Now we are at the point where I am thinking about it more.   Feels like you either need to go near 100% or near fade it.  
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This is why I am suspect of his recommendations. I guarantee when you see his actual gpp lineups, there will be a bunch without Hunt. 

 
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FatNate said:
Such a different route than I am going.  Not right or wrong — just different than mine.  Specifically, Cook and Jones, are not on my radar.  
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I always have exposure to Cook even when he's just coming back.  If he's active, 2.5x is his floor typically.

Jones is a special case....Rodgers o\/\/ns the Bears so its a leverage play against GB passing entries....I also have a Rodgers stack for leverage on the leverage lol.

Catching up in the thread, I see the Hunt ownership is through the moon....I also have a Baker/OBJ/Njoku stack for leverage.

One day one of these wacko entries is gonna hit.... or not.  :lmao:

 
KarmaPolice said:
I work on Sundays and we have been busy AF lately, so I have missed out on most of the injury stuff this season.  
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McLaurin is the one I am most invested in and have to follow. Hope, I have time to sneak away at the pumpkin patch to check it. 

 
I have Hunt in 3 of 4 on each site.   I did make sure he's in the flex on FD.  It might be slower today b/c of the Packer game, so I figured that way I at least could late swap off of him if my LUs are crap to that point.  Not much sense leaving in a 50% owned play if the LU is way south of cashing.   

DK I don't have that b/c I have 3 LUs with WR in flex and 1 2TE LU (I know - I always harp on that idea..)  For that one I used Kelce/RSJ as a secondary stack in a LU.    Not a ton to swap out of on DK if it came to that with him in RB slot - I guess flip it to Edmonds or Jacobs?  Pollard? 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I have Hunt in 3 of 4 on each site.   I did make sure he's in the flex on FD.  It might be slower today b/c of the Packer game, so I figured that way I at least could late swap off of him if my LUs are crap to that point.  Not much sense leaving in a 50% owned play if the LU is way south of cashing.   

DK I don't have that b/c I have 3 LUs with WR in flex and 1 2TE LU (I know - I always harp on that idea..)  For that one I used Kelce/RSJ as a secondary stack in a LU.    Not a ton to swap out of on DK if it came to that with him in RB slot - I guess flip it to Edmonds or Jacobs?  Pollard? 
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Yeah, Pollard.  Or Connor.

 
Another frustrating week, but will try to be positive in that when I look at the winning LUs, it was exactly my core of players - I just didn't have the right combo, and of course I did the K.Hunt thing.   

I think the proper thing would have been a fade once he got over that 30% threshold, especially when he was right in that tier with Taylor and Henderson.   Oh well, live and try to learn I guess.  

 
Thanks to Lamb and Dallas d, I ended up by a couple bucks overall on main slate.  I will take it for sure.  

too much Hunt, Adams, and Chase today.  

 
Best milly entry scored 187.8 good for 238th place out of >500,000 entries.  Netted me $40.  For the week $105 entry fees -> $96 winnings.

Amari Cooper and Jakobi Meyers were the duds in my top lineup.  Not surprised by Meyers but Cooper was a disappointment.

Oh, and as a Pats fan losing these games in heartbreaking fashion is starting to take a toll.  On the bright side, Jones is making progress.

 
Good week so far. I had 5 lineups that cashed in DK gpp.

175 was my high score.

Burrow, Booker, J.Taylor, Allen, Higgins, Kupp, RSJ, Mixon, Cards

 
SeniorVBDStudent said:
Best milly entry scored 187.8 good for 238th place out of >500,000 entries.  Netted me $40.  For the week $105 entry fees -> $96 winnings.

Amari Cooper and Jakobi Meyers were the duds in my top lineup.  Not surprised by Meyers but Cooper was a disappointment.

Oh, and as a Pats fan losing these games in heartbreaking fashion is starting to take a toll.  On the bright side, Jones is making progress.
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Pats fan here too and can't agree more.  That TD after the int was impressive.  New qb has some moxie.  

 
Broke even on DK showdowns last night - for me that is a win.    I tried the opposite of what I usually do - just 5 LUs with Harris at cpt, then Ds, Ks, and sprinkling of WRs.  

 
100 in and 40 out.  Disappointing week.  I can not seem to find the right WRs -- EVER!  I avoided Hunt in about half my lineups, but I still missed on most WRs.  This weeks real killer was that half my lineups were invested around the Balt/LAC game and were realiant on Lamar/Herbert.  They produced 25pts combined!

 
FatNate said:
100 in and 40 out.  Disappointing week.  I can not seem to find the right WRs -- EVER!  I avoided Hunt in about half my lineups, but I still missed on most WRs.  This weeks real killer was that half my lineups were invested around the Balt/LAC game and were realiant on Lamar/Herbert.  They produced 25pts combined!
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I used Herbert(RB) and Seals -Jones in all my lineups based on cost and they paid off. Only in the winning lineup did I use the extra money on usefull studs. Too much Adams,Ekler,Herbert,Lamar,Hunt,Kelce,Swift,Williams etc...

 
Steeler said:
I just put this placeholder lineup together for DK before seeing this post and it has a lot of the teams listed here.  Since this is my first lineup of the week, I should nuke it and forget all these players :lol:  

M. Stafford -- LAR stack
J. Mixon 
D. Williams KC -- leverage against Mahomes/Hill/Kelce (although I haven't seen any percentages yet)
C. Kupp -- LAR stack
K. Toney  -- run it back in LAR stack
T. McLaurin
M. Allie-Cox -- HOU gives up points to TE
C. Kirk -- deep threat WR has smashed CLE all year
Cowboys -- best D that fit with remaining $$$
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I ended up using this exact lineup in a $1 entry instead of the DK milly maker and won $4 instead of ~$60  :lol:    McLaurin and Toney were misses but everything else work OK.  25 in on DK and (the previously mentioned ) 4 out  - one milly maker and five $1 entries.

I continue to suck on FD and never cash any of the contests on that site so I've changed strategies and will enter one milly maker each week until I can't afford the $5 any longer, then step down to $1, then 0.25, then 0.05 until I am out of cash  :bag:  

 
I also want to reiterate, it's extremely challenging to place highly in gpp unless you play max entries. And even then it's very tough. But it can be done. 

I personally like the showdown contest format better for gpp and I think it provides an easier path to unlocking the highest scoring lineup without playing max entries. But often there are a large number of ties at the top which reduces the payouts, sometimes substantially. I've finished first in a few large fields and only once was there no tie. 

On that note, who does everyone like for the MNF showdown Bills v Titans?

 
TwinTurbo said:
I also want to reiterate, it's extremely challenging to place highly in gpp unless you play max entries. And even then it's very tough. But it can be done. 

I personally like the showdown contest format better for gpp and I think it provides an easier path to unlocking the highest scoring lineup without playing max entries. But often there are a large number of ties at the top which reduces the payouts, sometimes substantially. I've finished first in a few large fields and only once was there no tie. 

On that note, who does everyone like for the MNF showdown Bills v Titans?
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FD- Allen,Tannehill,Diggs,Moss and Ikhine.

DK- Bills D,Allen, Tannehill,Knox,Moss,Beasley

The most I've won on a $1 or $2 showdown is $15. A couple times I've "won"  and got back less than the entry fee- once was like 13 cents, 😆

 
Well, I faded Henry, so it looks like I am back to my usual showdown ways, and that will put me back to even for the week.  :lol:   

 
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