Commanders agreed to terms with RB Austin Ekeler, formerly of the Chargers, on a two-year contract.
The deal is worth “up to” $11.43 million and includes $4.82 million total in 2024. Another $1.5 million is possible incentives for 2024. It’s not the worst contract Ekeler could have signed, but it was probably one of his nightmare scenarios when he fought for a better deal last summer. We suppose 29-year-old Ekeler (in May) is an upgrade on Antonio Gibson in the Commanders’ pass-catching role, but it’s not for certain at this stage of his career. He is reuniting with Commanders RBs coach Anthony Lynn, who oversaw some of Ekeler’s pass-happiest campaigns with the Bolts. Kliff Kingsbury, of course, is the actual offensive coordinator. The three-down Ekeler experiment should be over, once again rendering him a receptions-based PPR FLEX.
- Rotoworld
I mean, that was obviously the ankle. He clocked around 20 mph before he hurt it last year in the Miami game.I wonder if Washington made sure could run faster than 13.9 mph before signing him?
How is BRob established?Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short
Eric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.How is BRob established?Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23
How do you read that?Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.www.pro-football-reference.com
New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment
You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touchesEric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.How is BRob established?Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23
How do you read that?Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.www.pro-football-reference.com
New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment
I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.
I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries
The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.
Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.
Some of Ekeler's highlights as a pass catcher as part of the 440 grabs he's nabbed in the NFL vs BRob's 45...You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touchesEric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.How is BRob established?Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23
How do you read that?Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.www.pro-football-reference.com
New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment
I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.
I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries
The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.
Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.
You have him in the lower RB3 range, which is RB31 thru RB36. With that many touches, there is no way he finishes lower than RB30... none. The last time a RB had 272 touches and finished outside the top 30 was never.
You're right. I transposed the numbers in my spreadsheet.You have Robinson getting 14 carries and 3 targets per game. Let's assume he is an average pass catcher and catches 2 of 3 targets. That's 14 + 2 = 16 touches X 17 games = 272 touchesEric Bienemy was arguably the worst OC in the NFC, and Washington lead the NFL in pass attempts despite a 1st time starting QB. I think Robinson is a better RB than his numbers have shown. Also was quite impressed with Robinson's receiving work last season.How is BRob established?Would bet the farm on under 200 carries. 29 year old back who has never had over 210 carries in a season going to a team that picked #2 overall with an established competent RB in the house already, where the incoming RB had a pathetic YPC figure in 2023 and has a chunk more wear and tear than expected due to exceptionally high receiving usage? I admire your optimism but that post reads like copium from a win now Ekeler owner who is trying to mask that they may be a RB short
205 carries in '22 decreased to 178 in '23
How do you read that?Brian Robinson Jr. Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Checkout the latest stats for Brian Robinson Jr.. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.www.pro-football-reference.com
New coaching regime as well.
I'd keep an open mind, most depth charts have Ekeler as the RB1 at the moment
I'm expecting Washington to be much more run heavy under Kingsbury (who maybe more than any playcaller loves running inside the 5) they were almost 65-35 pass/run in 2023, I'm expecting something closer to 55-45 or so, with a good percentage of those runs being Daniels. I think Washington will try to keep their defense off the field and shorten games and hope Daniels makes a few plays here and there.
I'll estimate weekly:
Robinson-14 carries, 3 targets
Ekeler-8 carries, 5 targets
Daniels-7 carries
The key will be who gets those super valuable (especially under Kingsbury) GL touches. That could be Ekeler, as he's shown success at it, but Robinson also has 30 pounds on him. Could also be Daniels.
Ultimately, I see both Robinson and Ekeler in the lower RB3 range, with Daniels in the lower QB1 range.
You have him in the lower RB3 range, which is RB31 thru RB36. With that many touches, there is no way he finishes lower than RB30... none. The last time a RB had 272 touches and finished outside the top 30 was never.
Ekeler has had a great run (as a pass catcher especially) but 50 catches feels a lot closer to his ceiling than an expectation in this offense. Daniels is not a dump off guy at all, unless he's coached to fundamentally change who he is as a player. Rivers/Herbert were very different types of QBs than Daniels.Some of Ekeler's highlights as a pass catcher as part of the 440 grabs he's nabbed in the NFL vs BRob's 45...
101, 92, 70 and on injury riddled seasons he managed 54 and 51...Ekeler is a gift and likely to catch a lot of ball from a rookie QB that will be scrambling and trying to just not take a negative play by dumping it off, I could see Ekeler easily crossing 50 and possibly land north of 70.
With a rookie under center that will be looking to throw the ball quickly, Ekeler as a safety valve seems pretty safe to catch another 40-50 balls.
Even on 3rd and 5+/3rd and long, Daniels might not connect with a WR down field, pass rush coming in quick and he dumps it.With a rookie under center that will be looking to throw the ball quickly, Ekeler as a safety valve seems pretty safe to catch another 40-50 balls.
I really don't know about this. Jayden has a strong propensity to tuck and run when a play breaks down. It was a major knock on his profile. Dumping to the RB outlet would be him unlocking a new habit, and while I hope he gains that, there is far from certainty that he will.
I let this comment stew for a few days, but it kept me thinking. I want to run some stats, but before I do, I would like the input of others. I am going to create a new thread and ask for a few lists.Ekeler has had a great run (as a pass catcher especially) but 50 catches feels a lot closer to his ceiling than an expectation in this offense. Daniels is not a dump off guy at all, unless he's coached to fundamentally change who he is as a player. Rivers/Herbert were very different types of QBs than Daniels.
Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.
Admit it - you waited until today to write this, so you could say he was 29, didn't you?Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.
Oh that's funny, I see his birthday was yesterday lol. I was not aware of that.Admit it - you waited until today to write this, so you could say he was 29, didn't you?Totally agree. Ekeler was a great story but at 29 in this new offense with a mobile QB, I don't think it's likely to work out for him. Also I know people don't think of him that way but Brian Robinson was a really effective receiver last year.I am all over Robinson this year. Ekeler is toast. 3rd down / change of pace. Robinson will get the bulk of the work.
Most undersized RB;'s who show a decline at the age of 29 usually don't bounce back.2021 - 276 touches including 70 catches for almost 650 yds helping him total 1,558 and 20 Big Touchdowns
2022 - 311 touches including 107 catches...read that part again...1,637/18 Big Touchdowns
2023 - Chargers go from Playoff contender to Top 5-6 pick, coach fired, dumpster fire, Ekeler only suited up 14 games. 230 touches, 51 catches , drop in production
Was given $24 Million over 3 years, he is likely to see around 250+ touches IMHO, 10-12 carries a game plus Washington lacks a true WR1, they need their RBs to contribute
I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
I'm not going to have this tug of war all summer long, most are posting nothing in terms of stats to feel so good about Robinson, feels like I walked into a Dynasty Pub
It's actually good news so few see him as being able to out pace his draft spot this year
ADP-109
Ekeler as an RB 3/4 in PPR leagues in the 9th round?
Free money in Redraft '24
I cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciatedI cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):
That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?
- PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
- Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
- YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
- YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
- YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
- Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
- Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)
Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.
- PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
- PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)
Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciatedI cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):
That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?
- PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
- Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
- YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
- YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
- YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
- Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
- Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)
Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.
- PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
- PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot
-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.
It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me
Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.
I'd like to see what he can do at 100%, that ankle injury hampered a lot of his production but I also think you are right that he's on the decline...but even at 75% of his normal self, that''s like 1,200 total yds and maybe 10TDsGood post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciatedI cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):
That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?
- PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
- Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
- YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
- YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
- YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
- Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
- Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)
Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.
- PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
- PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot
-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.
It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me
Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.
Yes, I'm a Chargers fan who watched every game last season. Ekeler looked like a shell of the player he was in 2021-2022. To be fair, he suffered an ankle injury early, and that was part of it, but to me that didn't seem like all of it... I think it is likely he is yet another older RB in age-/mileage-related decline. I was very happy the Chargers did not re-sign him, I wanted no part of that.
Not to mention that BRob has rushed for 700 yds each of his 1st couple seasons, he's not exactly untouchable.
I think those ADP rankings will change a lot between now and the beginning of the season.I'd rather have Robinson at his ADP (104) than Ekeler at his (79).
Are you referring to his LAC contract? Because Washington gave him a 2yr/11.43m deal that is easily turned into a 1yr deal with little hit next year if they move on. Washington definitely is not heavily invested financially in Ekeler, his contract is essentially a 1 year show me deal.Good post, you gave me something to chew on at least, much appreciatedI cannot believe anyone would put BRob ahead of Ekeler in pass catching, that seems like having a blind spot to me.
In 2023, Robinson was better than Ekeler at all of the following (ranks are among 44 RBs PFF graded in 2023 who had at least 30 targets):
That was receiving related. How about pass blocking?
- PFF Receiving Grade: Robinson (71.9, #9) > Ekeler (57.4, #32)
- Catch percentage: Robinson (90.0%, #4) > Ekeler (73.9%, #36)
- YPR: Robinson (10.2, #1) > Ekeler (8.5, tied for #5)
- YAC/REC: Robinson (11.4, #1) > Ekeler (10.5, #3)
- YPRR: Robinson (1.68, #4) > Ekeler (1.25, #14)
- Receiving TDs: Robinson (4, tied for #3) > Ekeler (1, tied for #22)
- Passer rating when targeted: Robinson (138.2, #1) > Ekeler (88.8, #29)
Given all that, IMO it doesn't really make sense that Ekeler would dominate passing opportunities over Robinson.
- PFF Pass Blocking Grade: Robinson (62.0, #20) > Ekeler (29.3, #55)
- PFF Pass Blocking Efficiency: Robinson (93.7%, tied for #34) > Ekeler (91.0%, #53)
You root for the Chargers I think, may have seen you posting more recently in the LAC thread so I take it you watch Ekeler a lot
-I bet Justin Herbert did not rate very high on PFF last year and many other sites that rate and rank QBs, I wouldn't assume he replicates his same numbers from last year, that team turned into a dumpster fire at some point and things got out of control. Harbaugh has sent a lot more guys on their way than I anticipated.
It won't shock me if Keenan Allen has a decent next couple years and it won't surprise me if Ekeler who was given $24M isn't given ample opportunities early on with all his experience and a rookie QB under Center, just the way the tea leaves read to me
Ekeler is listed as the starter on the depth charts for many sites I scroll across weekly, of course it's May.
I hope not. I traded a 2025 2nd for him.Probably been said in here over and over again but this has dalvin cook written all over it